4 Jan. 65 – TISCO Securities points out that Thai stocks in the first half of the year face 3 stressors, including the COVID-19 outbreak, rising inflation amid tightening US monetary policy, and the long-term mutual fund (LTF) outflow. BUY VALUE STOCKS – DIVIDEND SAFETY Awaiting the index to rise in the second half of the year Looking at the target of Thai stocks in 2022 at 1,720 points
Mr. Apichart Phobunjerdkul senior director Strategic Analysis Division TISCO Securities Company Limited (Mr. Apichat Poobunjirdkul, Senior Strategist, TISCO Securities Co., Ltd) Said that the past 2021 was a good year for investing in the stock market. The MSCI World Index returns 17%. In addition, 21 of the 48 stock markets listed on the MSCI World Index hit new all-time highs in the past year. This was driven by the opening up of economic activity following widespread vaccination. including the use of massive monetary and fiscal policies to support economic recovery For the Thai stock market last year it yielded 14%, close to the world stock market at 17% and was ranked among the top in Asia. However, when comparing returns from 2020 to 2021, the Thai stock market yielded only 5%. with the world stock market yielding a high return of 34% as a result of the overall picture of the Thai economy over the past 2 years that has recovered slowly and has not yet returned to the level before the COVID-19 crisis, mainly from the tourism sector that still has heavily affected
For the Thai stock market outlook in 2022, TISCO Securities has a view. “Carefully positive” In the first half of the year, the SET Index is expected to swing sideways within the range of 1,550-1,700 points before rising above 1,700 points in the second half of the year. TISCO Securities provides an appropriate SET Index target for the end of 2022 at 1,720 points.
However, for the first half of the year TISCO Securities assesses that Thai stocks will face challenges and are prone to volatility from 3 major risk factors:
1. The uncertainty of the Omicron epidemic situation There is a chance that the infection will accelerate following the New Year’s season has passed. If the number of infected people come back, the increase will not stop until it creates a tightness on the public health system or spreads to the industrial sector. This might lead to more stringent control measures. which will have a negative effect on the economy
2. The trend of rising inflation and US monetary policy more stringent The latest US inflation figures in November, 6.8%, the highest in more than 40 years, are likely to rise further in the short term. Expected to create concerns regarding the US monetary policy. may be stricter than expected both accelerating interest rates and accelerating balance sheet downsizing (Quantitative Tightening : QT) and
3. Long-term mutual fund (LTF) pressure Due in 7 years, this money usually flows out during the first quarter of every year according to the assessment of TISCO Securities. It is expected that this sum of money will be able to flow out as much as 50 billion baht, but believe that some LTF funds will flow back to the Savings Fund (SSF) and Retirement Mutual Fund (RMF) once more in order to Receive tax privileges, resulting in the net outflow of LTF should not exceed 30 billion baht.
Mr. Apichart said that although there are 3 risk factors that need to be watched and cause stock market volatility. But TISCO Securities sees that if the stock falls, it may be a good time to invest. because it is expected that in the second half of the year, the Thai stock index will gradually rose to reach the level of 1,750-1,800 points, mainly from the distribution of the booster vaccine will be more comprehensive and the US inflation outlook which is expected to begin to weaken during this period This has resulted in greater clarity regarding the Federal Reserve’s (FED) monetary policy, building investor confidence in the market. while the Thai economy in the second half of the year It is expected to recover clearly from the increase in foreign tourism, especially in 4Q22, and there is a chance that foreign capital will flow in from the appreciation of the baht following returning to the current account surplus. including the possibility of elections in 2022, which the Thai stock market often responds to in a positive way.
In summary, TISCO Securities sees the Thai stock market in 2022 as still attractive for investment, but has to wait for foreign tourists to jump back in the second half of the year. Therefore, the market in the first half of the year should have a limited opportunity to increase (Upside) and have a chance. Easy to fluctuate Therefore, it focuses on investing in value stocks and stocks with consistently good dividends to overcome this period. Recommended stocks for investing in the first half of the year are ADVANC , BDMS , DTAC , EGCO , KKP , SCB , SPALI and WHA. For the month of January, we recommend stocks that have already settled down before and have paid good dividends: BEC , DCC , KKP and TVO And stocks that are expected to have only positive factors to support. Recommended. BJC and TPIPL As a resultTop stocks in January are BEC, BJC, DCC, KKP, TPIPL and TVO. This month’s key support level is at 1620 points and the next one is at 1,590-1,600 points, while the important resistance level for the month is at 1,680-1690 points and the next resistance is at 1,700 points, respectively.
