Posted on February 12, 2023
Is the energy transition the big winner of the multiple crises we are going through? While many feared a decline in renewable energy and electric vehicles, and a strong comeback of coal, the opposite seems to be happening. Wind and solar produced more electricity than gas for the first time in the European Union in 2022, while global investments in the energy transition matched those in fossil fuels. Here are three signs that show that the low-carbon transition is well and truly underway.
Renewable energies, and to a lesser extent nuclear, should cover on average more than 90% of new electricity needs by 2025.
1/ Low-carbon energies will cover almost all the growth in electricity demand within three years
Renewable energies, and to a lesser extent nuclear, should cover on average more than 90% of new electricity needs by 2025, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). “This means we are close to a tipping point for emissions from the power sector”, commented its director, Fatih Birol. The share of renewables in the global energy mix is expected to increase from 29% in 2022 to 35% in 2025, with the share of coal and gas generation declining.
Within the European Union, this trend is already at work, since in 2022, wind and solar produced more electricity than fossil gas for the first time, and more than coal, according to a study by energy think tank Ember. “Europe has avoided the worst of the energy crisis”, said Dave Jones, head of data insights at Ember. “The shocks of 2022 have caused only mild repercussions for coal power and a huge wave of support for renewables”, he added. Ember predicts a 20% drop in fossil fuel production in 2023.
2/ Global investments in the energy transition equal those in fossil fuels for the first time
Global investments in the energy transition have meanwhile jumped 31% in 2022, year-on-year, to reach 1.1 trillion dollars, according to the report. Bloomberg NEF annual review. They reach the level of fossil fuels for the first time. Investments in renewable energy were the most massive, with $495 billion, up 17%. But it was in electrified transport that growth was strongest, with an increase of 54%. China is by far the biggest contributor. Its investments represent nearly half of global spending on energy transition. But if these investments are progressing, they are still insufficient to achieve the objectives of carbon neutrality. It will be necessary to spend three times more by 2030 to reach 4550 billion dollars per year.
3/ Sales of electric cars are breaking records
In 2022, more than 1.1 million electric vehicles were sold in Europe. This represents 12.1% of sales in the sector, compared to 9.1% in 2021 and barely 2% in 2019, according to the latest data from the Association of European Automobile Manufacturers (ACEA). In Norway, four out of five new cars (79%) were electric. A record! The kingdom, a major oil producer, aims to put an end to thermal engines for new registrations by 2025. The European Union will ban the sale of thermal vehicles in 2035.
But behind this apparent good news, the reality is that electric cars still only account for 1.5% of the European car fleet, still largely dominated by petrol and diesel vehicles. In addition, the share of SUVs is constantly growing. In 2021, they concentrated 46% of new vehicle sales within the European Union with 4.5 million SUVs sold, once morest 1.3 million in 2010. However, in addition to the electrification of the fleet, one of the to decarbonize the sector is to move towards lighter cars that consume less.
Concepcion Alvarez @conce1
