JAKARTA, investor.id – Indo Premier Sekuritas (IPOT) said that the market focus will be on three sentiments this week, namely the Bank Indonesia (BI) RDG, United States (US) monthly retail sales for September, and foreign fund flows. These stocks are relied on for trading this week, one of which is SMGR.
Indo Premier Sekuritas (IPOT) Equity Analyst Dimas Krisna Ramadhani emphasized that the first sentiment was the BI RDG on Wednesday (16/10/2024). BI will announce its benchmark interest rate and based on consensus the BI Rate is expected to fall again by 25 basis points to 5.75%.
This decision, continued Dimas, is in line with the policies implemented by other global central banks which have begun to lower their benchmark interest rates in line with the downward trend in inflation. As a reference, Indonesia has consistently experienced disinflation since March this year. This illustrates that people’s purchasing power continues to decline.
“As an anticipatory step, BI is implementing an expansionary monetary policy by lowering its benchmark interest rate in order to pump up the wheels of the economy,” explained Dimas.
Second, Dimas said, US monthly retail sales sentiment for September. This data illustrates the purchasing power of people in the US and is of concern to market players along with concerns about slowing economic conditions there. US Retail Sales for September are predicted to record growth of 0.3% compared to the previous month.
“Apart from inflation data, Retail Sales is also often a reference for policy makers in the US in formulating policies to maintain economic stability there,” added Dimas.
Third, Dimas said, sentiment regarding the flow of foreign funds to the IHSG, where throughout last week foreign investors recorded an outflow from the IHSG of IDR 2.3 trillion in the regular market. This nominal value decreased compared to the same period in the previous week which recorded an outflow of IDR 4.5 trillion in the regular market.
Dimas explained that the focus of foreign investors during the last 2 weeks was to exit or make sales at BBRI, where during the last 2 weeks outflow at BBRI contributed around 60% of the total outflow that occurred at IHSG in the regular market. Followed by BBCA and BMRI which only amounted to 30% of the total outflow that occurred in the IHSG.
According to Dimas, the outflow that occurred at BBRI is something to pay attention to in the state-owned bank’s shares, remembering that if we pull outflow data since March 27, when BBRI began to experience a decline from its highest level, foreign investors have recorded an outflow of IDR 26 trillion, compared to In contrast to BBCA shares which are both in the financial sector.
“BBCA actually recorded an inflow of IDR 1.7 trillion in the regular market during the same period,” said Dimas.
Reflecting on the sentiments above, Dimas recommends these stocks to rely on for trading this week, namely:
Editor: Indah Handayani
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Indo Premier Sekuritas — Market Sentiments with a Side of Wit
Well, well, well! The stock market this week has a tantalizing menu for investors. And judging by the deliciously juicy sentiments floating around, it’s likely to be quite the feast! Indo Premier Sekuritas (IPOT) is serving up a platter filled with the Bank Indonesia (BI) RDG, September’s US retail sales, and the ever-elusive foreign fund flows. Grab your forks, everyone—this is bound to be a bumpy ride!
The Star of the Show: BI’s RDG
First up, we have the Bank Indonesia’s (BI) Rapat Dewan Gubernur (RDG) happening on Wednesday (16/10/2024). With anticipation building, analyst Dimas Krisna Ramadhani has boldly stated that the consensus is a 25 basis point reduction in the BI Rate to 5.75%. Now, ladies and gentlemen, if that isn’t a humdinger of a situation, I don’t know what is!
This decision comes in the wake of global central banks putting on their ‘leisurely’ shoes and lowering their interest rates like they’re trying to pull off the limbo dance. Don’t you just wish we could all join in and enjoy a bit of disinflation? Alas, it seems that rather than inflating our wallets, the purchasing power is deflating faster than a bouncy castle at a kids’ birthday party. Poor little wallets!
Next Course: US Retail Sales
Moving along, we have the spicy delicacy of US monthly retail sales for September on the chopping block. Dimas thinks that Americans are set to show a modest growth of 0.3%. Let’s hope they’re not just using their credit cards to buy another avocado toast because, frankly, that could ruin the trend!
Retail sales are like that friend who always lingers and judges whether or not you should be “doing better” with your finances. They say, “Don’t you want to be a homeowner?” Right, Janet, after I’ve just spent my life savings on takeout. Thanks for reminding me!
Lastly, the Curious Case of Foreign Fund Flows
And then we have that curious character: foreign fund flows. Last week saw an outflow of IDR 2.3 trillion. Yes, that’s trillion with a capital ‘T’—almost sounds like an over-the-top action movie title. However, it’s worth noting that this is a decrease from the IDR 4.5 trillion outflow the week prior. A glimmer of hope, perhaps? Or just a case of investors holding their wallets a bit tighter?
So, why are foreign investors fleeing? Dimas noted that the spotlight has been on BBRI, which has seen a whopping 60% of total outflows from the IHSG (Indonesia Stock Exchange). In contrast, BBCA managed to sway some foreign investors with a delightful INFLOW of IDR 1.7 trillion. I’d say that’s quite the glow-up, wouldn’t you?
Final Recommendations: Stocks for the Week
After mulling over all these sentiments, Dimas has whipped up a delicious selection of stocks deemed worthy for trading this week. If you’re looking for what to nibble on in the stock market buffet, keep your eyes peeled because the options are aplenty!
So there you have it, folks! A cheeky look at our market sentiments with all the wit and charm. Can’t wait to see how this plays out—grab your popcorn!
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