Three months and the three biggest negotiations that will be the focus of general attention in Congress

The presentation on Monday, September 1, of the draft income and expenditure budget for 2025 for approximately Q149 billion, the upcoming election of the magistrates of the Supreme Court of Justice (CSJ) and the Courts of Appeals, and the formation of the new board of directors of the Congress of the Republic for the following year, are critical issues that will have public attention in the coming months due to the attitude shown by the parliamentarians.

Each legislative bloc will maintain its own interests and guidelines on these issues, and these discussions would begin with the presentation of the spending program for the next fiscal year by the Government.

The Legislative Board of Directors is clear that what will happen in the short term will define the future of the country in this political situation.

The starting point

Independent political analyst Renzo Rosal explained: “We must understand that Congress is an arena where each issue, each initiative, and especially these three – budget, election of magistrates and board of directors – that will now come up have their own individual logic, there may be some element that can link them in general, but they are three autonomous facts as such, and therefore negotiations, lobbying, agreements and specific incentives are required for each case.”

He acknowledged that the recent approval of the Q14 billion budget increase with the support of 114 deputies “although it may have an indirect effect, one cannot think that from now on there is an official alliance and any initiative presented by the Executive will pass and be approved easily.”

“These are three autonomous facts as such, and therefore negotiations, lobbying, agreements and specific incentives are required for each case.”

Renzo Rosal, independent political analyst

Political analyst Douglas González also believes that the recent approval of the budget expansion is the prelude to the decisions that will be made in the next three months.

The coalition that was formed around this reshuffle could remain united for the election of the courts and a new board of directors. However, the fact that the expansion was perceived as a victory for the ruling party does not mean that it can impose its preferences in the election of the courts.

“The lesson we learn from the approval of the budget increase is that the deputies are first capable of ignoring the warnings or threats that come from the Public Ministry or from the Vamos bench,” González noted.

Critical Legislative Agenda

When asked which of these decisions will have the greatest weight in the negotiations, analyst José Carlos Ortega, director of the Institute of Services to the Nation, said that the most important decision will be the election of judges for the CSJ and the Courts of Appeals.

“The country needs independent, impartial justice that is not ideologically based and that is prompt and complete; for that, we need honest, qualified and independent judges, which is a fundamental issue,” Ortega said.

The other two issues, he added, although highly relevant, are less important. He mentioned that the budget of Q149 billion “is an outrage” given the amount, and recalled that there are also other initiatives that are in Congress and that do not have the sense of urgency and list, such as reforms to the electoral law, civil service, contracts, among others.

Rosal believes that the deputies who voted in favor of the budget expansion would rather not have a new spending program approved, because they already achieved what they wanted, which was the distribution of allocations in their districts, with the expansion, and it guarantees them political margins.

The key issue of the vote, according to Rosal, will be the election of the courts, “because there the incentives or disincentives are of a different kind, and it will depend a lot on the short list presented by the Nomination Commission.”

“The coalition that was formed around this readjustment could remain united for the election of the courts and a new board of directors”

Douglas González, independent political scientist

Regarding the election of the board, he added: “The figure that the deputy Luis Aguirre (Cabal) had now with the expansion, and the physical dispute he had with the parliamentarian Allan Rodríguez Reyes (Vamos), that could have given him ‘sympathy, and figures would be needed that can have more distribution, so here the decomposition of the majority blocks could occur, especially like the UNE and Vamos blocks, which have a clear weakening, and that would be taken advantage of so that a different slate is the one that dominates a new Board of Directors.”

For González, the deputies are willing to vote with the ruling party if they have something to gain. He exemplified that in the case of the budget increase, these were projects in the Development Councils and fertilizers in the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food.

This means that, in order to approve the new courts, they could listen to some suggestions from the ruling party, but in the end the consensus will tend to be more transactional and seek to balance quotas based on the votes per bench.

González pointed out that, in the case of the new Board of Directors, two or three candidates are emerging: Luis Aguirre de Cabal, Adim Maldonado of the UNE, and Jorge Ayala of Valor, who are some of the names “that are being discussed.” However, this will be a process that will take more time and could be tied to the approval of the 2025 budget project.

“It’s a complete package”

Representative Sonia Gutiérrez Raguay, who is a member of the current board of directors of Congress, reviewed what the discussion of these issues will be like and how it would be addressed in her view as a discharge.

He defined that these three major issues are “a complete package” and that in his opinion the alliance will be consolidated, either from a perspective of being able to generate changes in the internal and structural aspects of the Legislature, or it will be consolidated for continuity, so that these “dark forces and traditional powers” ​​will control it.

The deputy said that, during these months of legislative activity, the three issues are “intrinsically linked” in order to strengthen this alliance “whether for good or for bad.”

In any case, he considered that if this alliance is consolidated for the “good”, it will depend a lot on a fundamental actor, which, in this case, is the Government, the current ruling party, and it will need to have greater leadership, since otherwise the “dark forces” will take over the direction of Congress and the country.

Gutiérrez added that another factor that should not be underestimated is the people, who are very attentive to the work of the legislature and what the government is doing.

When asked which of these actions will have the greatest negotiating weight, he stressed that the three have a relationship and “it is to have control and strength from Congress for the three branches of the State.”

He added that, due to the number of priorities and deadlines, the first thing he will discuss will be the election of judges, due to the constitutional deadline that exists, and the fight will be for control of the Judicial Branch. In the budget, if approval is given for the next fiscal year, the Executive will also be controlled in some way, and that logically there will be room for negotiation with them, “but it will be the force that will be demonstrated,” if the 114 votes that were given for the budget expansion are available.

In the case of the Board of Directors, it has a lot to do with being able to maintain that relationship with the Executive and to advance in some way on the issues of interest that it may want to promote.

“I cannot predict any results because it is still premature. At this moment, the forces are being recomposed. The following weeks will be decisive,” concluded Gutiérrez.