Original title: “Three arrows go hand in hand” to expand demand, optimize supply and stabilize expectations – how to “promote consumption” policy
Affected by the epidemic, as one of the “main engines” driving the economy, the recovery of consumption momentum is imminent.
A reporter from the “Economic Information Daily” found that in response to the “difficulties” of insufficient short-term demand, the “blocking points” of the supply side, and the “pain points” of unstable consumption expectations, relevant departments and localities are taking comprehensive measures, including speeding up the start-up. In the consumption season activities, large-scale issuance of consumption coupons; increased rescue efforts, and promotion of catering and retail to speed up recovery; stimulated consumption of large items such as automobiles and household appliances, and released information consumption, green consumption potential and other measures.
What is the effect of the policy implementation at present? How is the market recovery? How to make further precise efforts to accelerate the recovery of the consumer market? The reporter interviewed relevant enterprises and experts.
——In response to the “difficulty” problem of insufficient short-term demand, many localities seized the time window, accelerated the introduction of consumption promotion measures, intensively launched consumption season activities, and issued consumer coupons on a large scale, thereby increasing residents’ willingness to consume and leveraging more consumption of scale.
“The auto subsidy policy introduced by the province has a lot of customer inquiries, which has a certain role in promoting sales. In May this year, the sales of new cars rose by more than 65% month-on-month.” The person in charge of Jiangxi Guoli Group told reporters. It is reported that from May to July, Jiangxi will invest 46 million yuan for the car lottery lottery, and the highest reward for buying a new car will be 50,000 yuan.
In Guangzhou, from May 16 to May 24, driven by the “Yangcheng Happy Shopping” campaign to promote consumption, the city’s consumption amount increased by 17.35% from the previous week, and the number of consumption transactions increased by 13.49% from the previous week. “The consumer coupon activity has brought nearly 20,000 transactions to our platform, of which new users account for 28%, and it has also actively driven more than 3,000 low-frequency consumers to re-consume.” The person in charge of Pupu Supermarket said.
Recently, many places have accelerated the introduction of policies and measures to promote consumption, and stimulated consumer demand by issuing consumer subsidies and coupons. On May 29, Shanghai launched 50 measures in eight areas to speed up economic recovery and revitalization. Among them, in order to vigorously promote the accelerated recovery of consumption, effective measures have been put forward in terms of increasing the quota of non-commercial passenger car licenses, providing subsidies for the purchase of pure electric vehicles, and implementing the home appliance trade-in plan.
Two days ago, the “Several Measures of Shenzhen Municipality on Promoting the Continued Recovery of Consumption” was released, involving 30 measures in nine major areas, including automobiles, consumer electronics, home appliances, and outdoor cultural tourism. According to estimates by relevant departments, consumption will be driven by regarding 45 billion yuan.
He Jiang, director of the Institute of International Commerce and Trade of the Guangzhou Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the issuance of consumer coupons by the government can produce a multiplier effect of “four or two thousand pounds”, driving an increase in consumption that is several times the denomination of consumer coupons. It is an effective policy tool to boost the consumer market. .
Ping An Securities reported that with reference to the experience in 2020, the leverage ratio of consumer coupons is around 3.5. “Consumer coupons with a total value of less than 10 billion in various places have little marginal impact on total consumption. In the future, it is necessary to encourage more qualified cities to expand the scale of consumer coupon issuance to further promote consumption recovery.” Zhong Zhengsheng, Chief Economist of Ping An Securities Say.
——In response to the problem of “blocking points” on the supply side, from optimizing the policy of resuming work and reaching production capacity, improving the services for “whitelist” enterprises, to ensuring the smooth flow of freight and other series of measures, relevant departments and local governments have taken a series of measures to ensure that supply blockages are cleared. .
As an important area of large-scale consumption, the retail sales of automobiles by units above designated size in April fell by 31.6% year-on-year. “The month-on-month trend of new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles has been affected by production. Among them, the shortage of new energy vehicles has led to serious delays in undelivered orders.” Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Federation, said.
In an interview with a reporter from the Economic Information Daily, Guan Lixin, deputy director of the Institute of Circulation and Consumption of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, pointed out that the current consumer market is not only facing the pressure of weakening demand, but from the perspective of bulk consumption and key areas, there are still some blockages on the supply side. The point card point needs to be cracked urgently.
The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that the automobile industry has a long chain, a wide range of coverage, and strong driving force. Currently facing the “two-way pressure” of blocked supply and weakened demand, it is necessary to adhere to “demand pull first, supply and demand two sides exert force”, and reverse the decline as soon as possible. situation.
In the Pudong New Area of Shanghai, a large number of enterprises producing auto parts, such as transmission system products, high-precision injection parts, instrument displays, etc., have resumed production one following another. At present, 21 large-scale enterprises accounting for more than 90% of the industrial output value of automobiles in Pudong New Area have resumed work and production.
“Closed control management, most of the employees are at home. Online stores can still operate, but warehousing logistics and allocation have become problems.” Many e-commerce companies have experienced such a situation. Relying on the working mechanism of ensuring the smooth flow of logistics, all localities issue key material transport vehicle passes to postal and express delivery enterprises in a timely manner as needed, and promote the timely recovery of the delivery logistics network in various places.
Creating new demand with new supply has also become an important focus. It is understood that in terms of further expanding consumption, it will fully tap the potential of information consumption and green consumption, cultivate information consumption demonstration cities and demonstration projects, and accelerate the integration and application of 5G, industrial Internet and vertical industries such as energy and education.
“The policy of stabilizing consumption requires comprehensive application of demand-side management and supply-side reform, while giving full play to the fundamental role of consumption and the key role of investment, enhancing residents’ consumption capacity, enriching the supply of products and services, improving urban and rural consumption infrastructure, and optimizing urban and rural public service systems. Better enhance consumer confidence and consumer expectations.” Guan Lixin said.
——In response to the “pain point” of unstable consumption expectations, while effectively controlling the epidemic and resuming production and life as soon as possible, relevant departments have stepped up efforts to help enterprises, and strive to promote the recovery and development of difficult industries such as catering and retail. Employment and income will be stabilized, and consumption will and ability will be improved.
“The local epidemic has occurred frequently, affecting most provinces across the country. Residents went out to shop and eat less, and the sales of non-essential commodities and the catering industry were significantly impacted.” Fu Jiaqi, a statistician at the Department of Trade and Foreign Economics of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that the catering revenue in April It fell by 22.7% year-on-year, and the revenue from rooms above designated size fell by more than 30%.
“Affected by the epidemic in the early stage, the operating conditions of the catering industry were not optimistic. Especially during the suspension of dine-in, sales were much less, and the operating pressure was very high.” Zhao Liang, financial director of Wuxi Wang Xingji Co., Ltd., said that in order to further promote the resumption of work and business, To reduce losses, the company actively expanded the types of takeaways, enriched distribution channels, and increased online marketing of gift box products. Although certain results have been achieved, there is still a big gap compared with the sales during the normal operating period.
Benefiting from the support of favorable policies such as the “house and land” two-tax reduction and the expansion of the “six taxes and two fees” preferential policies in some difficult industries, “Wang Xingji” is expected to enjoy regarding 400,000 yuan of tax concessions throughout the year. “This is equivalent to selling 13,000 more cages of xiao long bao, which greatly reduces the pressure on operations, and also increases our confidence and confidence in responding to the epidemic and stabilizing jobs and resuming production.” Zhao Liang introduced.
Since the beginning of this year, especially since the second quarter, the implementation of the new combined tax and fee support policy and the phased deferral of social security premiums for the extremely poor industries has been accelerated.
In Zhong Zhengsheng’s view, increasing the bailout of enterprises and giving priority to protecting market players can form a positive interaction between promoting consumption and stabilizing employment. “Protecting market players will help to absorb employment, thereby improving the consumption willingness and consumption capacity of the residential sector.”
“When market entities and enterprises are stable, ordinary people will have income, and only with income can they consume.” Wang Wei, director of the Institute of Market Economics of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that there will be a certain time lag from enterprises to income to consumption, and consumption will recover in 2022 It may be relatively lagging behind the overall economic market and the growth of the supply side, but this gap will gradually narrow. (Reporter Wang Wenbo, Ban Juanjuan, Pan Ye, Ding Le, Cheng Di)
[Editor in charge: Cao Jing]