It was Putin’s first visit to Lukashenko since 2019, and he was ceremoniously received in the capital Minsk. The meeting, scheduled at short notice, fueled rumors that Belarus might soon take a more active role in the Ukraine war. Since the beginning of the war in February, the country has often come into focus, with Putin sending thousands of soldiers across the Belarusian border into northern Ukraine. But Belarus has not yet actively intervened.
During the “substantive” talks, an agreement was reached to increase cooperation “in all areas,” most notably in the defense sector, according to Putin. These are joint measures to ensure the security of both countries, such as mutual arms deliveries and joint armaments production. The economic situation was also a big topic – not least in view of the sanctions imposed by the West, which Putin once once more described as “illegal restrictions”.
Several indications of movement on the Ukrainian border
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has denied rumors that Putin wants to force Belarus to enter the war once morest Ukraine. These are “stupid and unfounded pipe dreams,” he told the state news agency RIA Novosti in the run-up to the talks. But of course the short-term visit leaves many questions – and is not the only indication that a front might be forming in northern Ukraine.
The US magazine “Foreign Policy”, for example, refers to new satellite images that are supposed to show military equipment on the way to the border. A recent review of the combat readiness of Belarusian troops is said to have sparked concerns in Ukraine that Minsk might take part in the war in the future.
Precarious situation might slow Lukashenko
But actual intervention would be risky for the Kremlin ally, says a former officer in a Belarusian special forces unit who defected to Europe. He told Foreign Policy, “Lukashenko is doing his best not to send the military to Ukraine. He is aware that the only ones who can keep him in power are the military and the security services. If they go to Ukraine, they will either die or be wounded, and that might be a disaster for him,” said the former military, who is not named by the paper.
The Belarus expert and journalist Hanna Liubakova also sees this as a problem for those in power. The situation for Lukashenko has been precarious since the Belarusian mass protests in 2020. The majority of society is once morest sending troops, Luibakova told Foreign Policy. Young men in particular would not be motivated to fight – if they die in the war, it might trigger new protests and threaten Lukashenko’s power.
Experts have doubts regarding the Belarusian army
As the British “Guardian” writes, experts remain skeptical that Belarusian troops, which are considered “relatively weak”, would invade Ukraine – even if Putin increased the pressure on Lukashenko. Belarus is heavily dependent on Russian oil and cheap credit.
“It is extremely unlikely that Belarusian forces will invade Ukraine without a Russian strike force with them. It is far from clear that Lukashenko would use Belarusian troops to fight in Ukraine, not even alongside Russian troops,” the Guardian quoted a report by the US think tank Institute for the Study of War as saying.
Movements might be diversionary maneuvers
“Foreign Policy” writes that crossing the “heavily mined border region” would be accompanied by “high losses”. Instead, the rearmament at the border might only serve as a distraction. It would draw attention from the highly competitive south and east of Ukraine to the north.
Liubakova also considers an imminent attack unlikely, instead she sees a joint diversionary campaign by Russia and Belarus – “Lukashenko’s regime would be helpful” for this. But: “Many people got it wrong in February, too, and for Putin, taking Kiev would be the most logical point from a military perspective. The fastest way to Kyiv is via Belarus.”
It is unclear whether Lukashenko will withstand Putin’s pressure
For the Kremlin ally Lukashenko, who has been in power in Belarus since 1994 and is considered the last dictator in Europe, the question arises where the pressure prevails: the instability in his own country might be his own undoing if he intervened. But as Belarus expert Artjom Schraibman says in the Guardian, Putin might ultimately prevail. “Right now, Putin seems content with everything Lukashenko has given him. But if he demands direct participation in the war from Lukashenko, I cannot bet that he will fight back successfully forever.”
