“I can’t wait for Black Friday this year”
‘Black Friday’ (herefollowing bluff), a major discount event in the United States, is approaching in two months. Overseas direct purchasers who should be immersed in happy worries have started to declare ‘abandonment of purchase’ one following another. This is interpreted as the effect that it is difficult to expect the same ‘super special price’ as in the past due to the cracked exchange rate.
On the 30th, the won-dollar exchange rate closed at 1430.2 won in the Seoul foreign exchange market, down 8.7 won from the previous trading day. Over the past year, it has risen to close to $250. You might buy a $600 TV for 700,000 won last year, but now you have to spend 850,000 won. If the exchange rate rises two months from now, the price might jump even more.
In fact, experts think that is highly likely. The exchange rate ‘high march’ will continue for the time being. Min Kyung-won, a researcher at Woori Bank, said, “As the current resistance level is 1,500 won, it is necessary to respond with the possibility of further rises in the exchange rate and volatility increasing for the time being.” Lee Seung-hoon, a researcher at Meritz Securities, also predicted, “It will be difficult to expect a change in the direction of the dollar until the US central bank’s tightening tightening, concerns regarding the deterioration of fundamentals from the eurozone energy, restrictions on economic recovery from China’s real estate, and unrest in the UK financial market are alleviated.” .
Foreign direct buyers have already started to close their wallets. According to the National Statistical Office, overseas direct purchases for online shopping in the second quarter of this year recorded 1.302.1 trillion won. It was down nearly 70 billion won from the previous quarter (1.37 trillion won). During this period, the average daily won-dollar exchange rate jumped from 1,200 won to 1,250 won. In the third quarter, the scale of overseas direct purchase is expected to decrease further. This is because the exchange rate has skyrocketed since August. There are voices of concern that the overseas direct purchase market may be in a state of ‘closure of stores’ as exchange rate volatility is likely to increase by the end of the year.
Samsung Electronics, a representative beneficiary of black, is crying. This is because of the anxiety that you may miss out on the year-end shopping that runs from Bluff to Christmas. Following the recent ‘severe cold’ of memory semiconductors, there is news that the foundry (semiconductor consignment production) market is booming. For Samsung Electronics, this is ‘a blow to the ground’.
The loss of shareholders is likely to be huge. This is because the ‘Year-end Rally’ has been held for the past two years. Between November and December 2021, Samsung Electronics rose more than 10%. During the same period last year, it soared 41% and even reached ‘80,000 electrons’. It was a 180-degree different situation from now, when new lows continue to march. Securities analysts warn that the stock price might be pushed up to ‘40,000 electrons’. Song Myung-seong, a researcher at Hi Investment & Securities, said, “The stock price of Samsung Electronics is likely to fall to the level of 46,300 won.” A reversal of the atmosphere is expected only following the year has passed. Researcher Song predicted that “it will turn upward in the first quarter of next year, which is expected to be the end of the US interest rate hike.”
Another beneficiary, LG Electronics, is in the same situation. The stock price, which broke the 150,000 won mark at the beginning of the year, is on a downtrend and is staying at the 70,000 won level. A red light was lit on the TV, one of our main businesses. It is analyzed that the demand for high-end TVs is declining sharply due to the steep interest rate hike. Korea Investment & Securities said, “LG Electronics’ estimated sales in the third quarter are 19.9 trillion won in sales and 877.6 billion won in operating profit, which will be in line with the market consensus (performance forecast),” but “HE (home entertainment, TV, etc.) It is expected to increase by 5.9% from the previous quarter, slightly lower than the forecast (11%).”
I think the key to the rebound depends on the battlefield business. Cho Cheol-hee, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, said, “VS (automobile electronics), a mid- to long-term food and growth industry, succeeded in turning to a profit in the second quarter. said.
By Park Byung-jun, staff reporter real@hankyung.com
