2024-03-15 21:40:00
Nikkei Average
■This week’s market points
1. Nikkei average fell for two consecutive weeks, temporarily falling to the low 38,000 yen range
2. Heavy rain since the beginning of the week, US tech stocks plummeting due to weak market conditions
3. Expectations of Bank of Japan normalization emerge, yen appreciating in foreign exchange market
4. There is a wait-and-see mood for the Bank of Japan meeting and FOMC meeting next week.
5. Nissan and Honda consider partnership in EV and in-vehicle software
■Weekly market overview
On the Tokyo stock market this week, the Nikkei Stock Average fell for the second consecutive week, dropping 981 yen (2.5%) from the previous weekend to 38,707 yen.
This week, the market was in a state of turmoil early in the week. The overall market plunged due to the double whammy of the fall in US tech stocks last weekend and the strong yen once morest the backdrop of expectations of normalization by the Bank of Japan. The Nikkei Stock Average at one point fell to the low 38,000 yen range, dropping nearly 2,000 yen from its recent high (40,109 yen).
The Tokyo stock market opened the week on Monday, the 11th, with a sharp decline from the previous weekend. The Nikkei Stock Average experienced a turbulent decline, with the drop exceeding 1,100 yen at one point. Continuing the trend of selling off mainly high-tech stocks in the US stock market last weekend, major stocks including semiconductor-related stocks fell across the board. Speculation emerged that the Bank of Japan would bring forward the normalization of monetary policy, and the appreciation of the yen in the foreign exchange market also turned off the economy, especially in the export sector. There was a slight decline on the 12th (Tuesday) as well. Continuing the risk-off trend from the previous day, the Nikkei average briefly fell by 500 yen, looking for a downside. After a round of selling, the price declined, but aggressive buying was refrained ahead of the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February on the same day and night. On the 13th (Wednesday), the market peaked in the morning and then fell back. The Nikkei average has now fallen for the third day in a row. The previous day’s CPI was higher than expected in the US stock market, but this did not cause any negative reactions and the overall market rose. The Tokyo market also started in a risk-friendly mood, but on this day, wage increases at large companies were more active than expected as it was the day for intensive responses to the spring labor union, and there was a growing expectation that negative interest rates would be lifted at the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting the following week, causing market prices to decline. The top price was suppressed. On the 14th (Thursday), we turned around following the morning break. The market continued to be weighed down by concerns regarding the lifting of negative interest rates, but once the selling had stopped, there was gradual buying and the Nikkei Stock Average began to rise. There was a decline on the 15th (Friday). There was a wait-and-see mood ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting and the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next week.Individually, Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. has begun considering alliances in the fields of electric vehicles (EVs) and in-vehicle software. <7201> [東証Ｐ]and honda <7267> [東証Ｐ]attracted attention.
■Next week’s points
Next week, the results of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting on the 18th and 19th and the US FOMC meeting on the 19th and 20th will influence market prices. It will be a wait-and-see situation until it passes both meetings, and full-fledged moves are likely to take place in the second half of this week. If the Bank of Japan lifts negative interest rates, it is expected that stocks will fall due to the yen’s appreciation, but many see this as a pushback. The actual extent of the decline is likely to be limited.
Domestically, in addition to the aforementioned Bank of Japan policy meeting, the January machinery orders to be announced on the morning of the 18th, and the February national consumer price index to be announced on the morning of the 22nd will be attracting attention. Overseas, in addition to the FOMC, China’s February industrial production index and retail sales will be announced on the 18th, China’s January-February fixed asset investment will be announced on the 19th, the US housing starts for February will be announced on the 19th, and the February 21st will be announced. We need to keep an eye on the US October-December current balance and the US February Conference Board Economic Leading Index.
■Daily movements (March 11th to March 15th)
[↓]March 11th (Monday) — Sharp decline, below 39,000 yen due to low US tech and strong yen
Nikkei average 38820.49 (-868.45) Trading volume 2,028.54 million shares Trading value 5,268.7 billion yen
[↓]March 12th (Tuesday) – Continued decline, temporary steep decline slows down due to buybacks
Nikkei average 38797.51 (-22.98) Trading volume 1,829.73 million shares Trading value 4,786 billion yen
[↓]March 13th (Wednesday) — Falling for 3 days in a row, selling dominated by speculation that the Bank of Japan’s policy change will be brought forward
Nikkei average 38,695.97 (-101.54) Trading volume 1,648.71 million shares Trading value 4,442.8 billion yen
[↑]March 14th (Thursday) – Rebound for the first time in 4 days, following a round of selling, buys on the push are dominant
Nikkei average 38807.38 (+111.41) Trading volume 1,660.28 million shares Trading value 4,337.4 billion yen
[↓]March 15th (Friday) — Selling dominated mainly in semiconductor-related stocks due to decline in U.S. stocks
Nikkei average 38707.64 (-99.74) Trading volume 2,368,980,000 shares Trading value 5,793.4 billion yen
■Sector trends
(1) Prices decreased in 20 industries out of 33 industries
(2) Mitsubishi UFJ has the highest rate of price decline <8306> including banks,
Ｔ＆Ｄ <8795> Insurance, Japan Exchange etc. <8697> Financial stocks such as and other financials fell across the board.
(3) Disco <6146> Machines such as Toe Elec <8035> Electrical equipment, HOYA etc. <7741> Export stocks such as precision equipment also fell sharply.
(4) Domestic stocks are KDDI <9433> Information and communications, Sekisui House, etc. <1928> Construction is cheap, but
Mitsubishi storehouse <9301> Warehousing/Transportation, Sumitomo Foods, etc. <8830> Real estate is strong, such as
(5) Economically sensitive stocks are Yusen <9101> Shipping, Nippon Steel, etc. <5401> Steel such as steel products sold significantly, but Sumitomo Mine <5713> Non-ferrous metals such as
(6) ENEOS has the highest price increase rate <5020> etc. petroleum. TEPCO HD <9501> Electricity and gas prices are also significantly higher.
■[Investment Theme]Weekly Top 5 (Number of accesses on Stock Search PC version)
1(2) Artificial intelligence
2(7) Benefits of strong yen
3(1) Semiconductor
4(3) Generate AI
5(5) Regional banks — Interest is growing as expectations for the Bank of Japan’s policy normalization increase.
*Brackets are previous week’s rankings
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