This week’s key international financial events include: US March CPI and PPI inflation-related data will be released soon, JPMorgan Chase and other bank stocks will announce their earnings reports, the European Central Bank (ECB), the New Zealand Bank, and the Bank of Canada will announce interest rate decisions soon, the Fed and more U.S. stocks were closed on Friday (15th) following the latest remarks from a number of officials, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) publishing its monthly report.
This week’s trading notes (04/11-04/15)
1. US March CPI and PPI:
The latest US inflation index is regarding to be released. The market believes that the annual growth of the US consumer price index (CPI) and core CPI in March will continue to heat up, and the growth rate will not slow down until April. After 40 years of high inflation, the stance has gradually turned hawk. According to the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) March meeting released last week, many officials are inclined to raise interest rates by 2 yards, and may start to raise interest rates by up to $95 billion per month in the future. The speed of shrinking the balance sheet.
Affected by the Russian-Ukrainian war, oil prices and other commodity prices rose. Last month, the producer price index (PPI) for final demand increased at an annual rate of 10%. Although it was in line with market expectations, it was higher than the 9.7% in the previous month, and it also soared for the first time. To double digits, the market believes that PPI is regarding to go higher, and the annual growth rate of PPI is expected to rise to 10.6% in March.
2. Bank of America stocks kick off earnings season
The U.S. earnings season kicks off this week, led by bank stocks. As investment banking revenue stagnated following Russia invaded Ukraine at the end of February, analysts expect first-quarter profits to fall sharply from a year earlier and net income for the six largest U.S. banks to fall That’s down regarding 35% from a year ago, with revenue from the trading business down 18%.
JPMorgan (JPM-US) will announce its first-quarter financial results for the 2022 fiscal year before the U.S. stock market opens on Wednesday (13th), with the market forecasting revenue of $30.57 billion and earnings per share of $2.27.GS-US) on Thursday (14th) relayed its first-quarter earnings report, expecting revenue of $11.98 billion and earnings per share of $8.95.
3. European, New Zealand, Canada and other central banks announce interest rate decisions
European Central Bank (ECB) to announce interest rate decisionEURThe record high inflation in the region and the uncertainty of the impact of the border war between Russia and Ukraine, officials will not rush to raise interest rates, it is expected that the three major interest rates will remain unchanged.
New Zealand’s exports have improved due to rising dairy prices. In addition, the opening of the border is expected to boost tourism revenue, thereby boosting economic growth. New Zealand’s central bank has accelerated its interest rate hike cycle and is expected to raise interest rates by 1 yard.
On the other hand, Canada’s strong economic growth and employment data, active real estate market and rising inflation, the Bank of Canada has started raising interest rates in early March, and is expected to raise interest rates by another yard this time. In addition, the central banks of Singapore and South Korea will also announce interest rate decisions.
4. Multiple Fed officials talk
Fed officials have traveled intensively this week, arranging multiple public speeches or meetings, including the Fed’s “second-in-command” Lael Brainard and “third-in-command” John Williams.
Brainard said last week that the Fed needs to act quickly and aggressively to bring down soaring inflation, adding that the FOMC committee will continue to tighten monetary policy in an orderly manner with a series of rate hikes, with a rapid start as soon as possible at its May meeting. Shrinking balance sheet.
