This week’s key international financial events include: the US consumer price index (CPI) in January and the Michigan consumer confidence index in February, Disney, Pfizer, Coca-Cola and other companies announced last quarter’s financial reports, as well as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the United States The three major crude oil agencies, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA), will publish monthly reports.
This week’s trading notes (0207-0211)
1. US January CPI
After last week’s largely better-than-expected jobs data, the strong data fueled speculation the Federal Reserve might be more aggressive in raising interest rates, this week turning focus to upcoming U.S. inflation data, which Wall Street expects 1 The annual rate of US consumer price index (CPI) will reach 7.3% in March, up 0.3 percentage points from December.
2. Pfizer, Disney, Coca-Cola and other companies announce financial reports
After the earnings report of heavyweight technology stocks last week, it is the turn of biotechnology stocks, travel and entertainment stocks, consumer staples stocks and software high-growth stocks that the market is concerned regarding, including Coca-Cola (KO-US), Pepsi (PEP-US), vaccine giant Pfizer (PFE-US), Disney (DIS-US)、Uber(UBER-US)，Datadog (DDOG-US), and Cloudflare (NET-US) and other stocks.
According to FactSet statistics, 56% of the constituent stocks in the S&P 500 have announced financial reports, of which 76% have better-than-expected earnings per share (EPS), and 77% have better-than-expected revenue. Above the 5-year average of 18.6 and the 10-year average of 16.7.
However, Wall Street is lowering its earnings forecast for the first quarter of 2022, with the S&P 500 forecast for a 0.7% decline in EPS in the first quarter, the first negative EPS forecast since the second quarter of 2020. Among them, industrial stocks have been revised down by 10%, and only energy, real estate, technology and health care are expected to maintain positive EPS growth.
3. Outlook of the three major crude oil institutions of OPEC, EIA and IEA
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the reluctance of OPEC to increase production have tightened the supply and demand of the crude oil market. Now, the snowstorm is ravaging the United States. The crude oil city of Texas is facing challenges in the recent crude oil production capacity. Rising, West Texas and Brent crude oil prices both hit new highs in more than seven years.
Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank, said that the recent rise in oil prices was mainly due to the cold snap in Texas, which has caused the market to worry that the largest shale oil field in the United States may stop production. It is expected that OPEC, EIA and IEA will release monthly crude oil market outlook reports this week, which is expected to provide clearer supply and demand information for the market outlook.
