This week’s key international financial events include: US December consumer price index (CPI), US corporate earnings season starts, bank stocks will take the lead, and central bank officials of many countries made speeches. In addition, US and Japanese leaders will hold a “shore visit” in Washington.
This week’s trading notes (0109-0113)
1. US December CPI
The US Department of Labor will announce December CPI on Thursday (12th). If inflation shows signs of continuing to slow down, it will not only strengthen the market’s view on the Fed’s policy shift, but may also lead to discussions on the timing of interest rate cuts this year.
Japan will also announce the CPI in the Tokyo area, which is the first official statistics following the Bank of Japan (BOJ, central bank) suddenly announced the relaxation of the yield curve control (YCC) policy at the end of last month. turn to rate hikes,JPYIt has still appreciated to a seven-month high since this time. The Bank of Japan will hold its next decision-making meeting on January 18.
In addition, Australia and China will also announce the latest CPI.
2. Bank stocks kick off the Q4 earnings season for US companies
The fourth quarter earnings season of US companies is regarding to start, led by bank stocks, including Bank of America (BAC-US),JPMorgan (JPM-US),FuGuo bank (WFC-US), Citigroup (C-US) will release results on Friday (13th), and BlackRock (BLK-US), UnitedHealth (UNH-US),Delta Airlines (DAL-US) to announce financial statements.
Analysts polled by FactSet expect S&P 500 companies to report a 4.1% drop in profits in the fourth quarter of 2022 from the same period in 2021, potentially marking the first profit contraction since the third quarter of 2020.
According to the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Refinitv IBES, S&P constituents’ fourth-quarter profits also declined, with an estimated year-on-year decrease of 1.6%.
3. Talks by central bank officials of many countries
The first monetary conference this year attended by central bank officials from multiple countries will be held in Stockholm on Tuesday (10th). Both central bankers will deliver speeches, as will Isabel Schnabel, a member of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) executive board.
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in 2023, will speak on Thursday related to the outlook for the U.S. economy.
In addition, South Korea’s central bank held an interest rate decision-making meeting on Thursday (12th).
4. US-Japan leaders meeting
Japan holds the rotating presidency of the Group of Seven (G7) this year. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will visit France, Italy, the United Kingdom, Canada and the United States from Monday (9th), and will pay homage to the US President in Washington on Friday (13th). Deng held a meeting.
When Kishida announced his visit a few days ago, he said that he would take this opportunity to demonstrate the strengthening of the US-Japan alliance and discuss issues such as maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. The White House also stated in a statement that the two sides will exchange views on issues such as the US-Japan alliance, Taiwan Strait security, North Korea, the Ukraine war, and a free and open Indo-Pacific.
