Putting an end to energy imports (gas, oil, coal) from Russia would be economically bearable for France and the European Union, estimates a study published on Tuesday, which also shows the effectiveness that the establishment of high customs duties on energy imports.
An embargo on energy imports would have “a relatively small impact” on European economies, with a loss of GDP between 0.2 and 0.3% on average, “i.e. 100 euros per adult European”assessed the four economists who authored this study published under the aegis of the Council for Economic Analysis, a body responsible for advising the French government.
Certain States would however be much more penalised, such as Lithuania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Finland or the Czech Republic, and would need “European solidarity”.
France, with less exposure to oil, coal and above all gas imports, would be less penalized, with a loss of GDP estimated at between 0.15 and 0.3% depending on its ability to find alternatives to the products currently purchased from Russia.
For Germany, which is holding back with four irons once morest the implementation of an embargo, the loss of GDP is estimated at between 0.3 and 3%, a level that the authors of the study consider “generally moderate and (which ) can be absorbed”.
Customs duties
However, the introduction of customs duties on Russian energy imports, for example of 40%, would be “more effective than a strict embargo”, estimates the study.
It would lead to a “very strong reduction in imports”, of regarding 80%, while reducing “strongly”, by dividing them by 3 or 4, the economic losses of the countries most dependent on Russia.
To arrive at these conclusions, they considered the share of Russian oil, gas and coal consumed by the different countries, then estimated the quantity that these countries might replace by other energy sources or suppliers, relying in particular on International Energy Agency assessments.
Finally, they assessed the impact of the residual quantity of energy coming from Russia that the countries might not replace in the short term on their economic activity.
However, the authors specify that “it is important that a set of macroeconomic measures be put in place to avoid an amplification of the energy shock”, citing monetary policy and budgetary measures targeted at the sectors and households most penalized by the increase in gas prices that an embargo or customs duties would cause.
