Colombia will choose within 17 days between two different visions of the country: that of Gustavo Petro and that of Roldofo Hernández. One of these presidential candidates will take office on August 7 of this year to replace Iván Duque and from then on he will have to consolidate his forces in Congress to achieve the viability and approval of the bills and constitutional reforms that he will make in the next four years.
In theory, Petro is the one who will have the most political strength in the new Congress that will take office on July 20, since his coalition, the Historic Pact, will have at least 46 congressmen on behalf of its closed list for the Senate and various lists for the Chamber. of Representatives, while Hernández only has two congressmen who were elected on a list to the Chamber by Santander with the League of Anti-Corruption Governors political movement.
Despite this contrast and apparent wide advantage, the political burdens in the two chambers of Congress are not yet defined because if he reaches the Presidency, the former mayor of Bucaramanga might lay hands on different groups of major parties that plan to support him in the second round and who have shown that they have no affinity with the former president of the country’s capital.
Petro has fixed opponents
The balance of congressional power for the next four years will vary depending on who is elected as the new President of the Republic. From the outset it has become clear that a government of Gustavo Petro would find it difficult to pass its bills and constitutional reforms in Congress without major inconveniences because he has several traditional parties with majorities that will oppose him.
The candidate of the Historical Pact will have majority benches both in the Senate (19 congressmen) and in the Chamber (27 congressmen), but he will not have guaranteed absolute majorities, due to the fact that he already has defined several groups that oppose his political proposal and who have stated that they would not support it, as is the case with the Conservative, Democratic Center, Mira, La U and Cambio Radical parties.
In the absence of the final count, which according to the National Electoral Council would be ready in mid-July, Petro might have the support of at least 32 senators and 43 representatives to the Chamber, counting the support of some elected congressmen from the Alianza Verde and the Liberal Party that have expressed their support, as well as the minority Comunes, ASI, Mais, Aico and Colombia Renaciente.
His challenge focuses on how to broaden that spectrum so that the ambitious reforms he proposes (see X-ray), are not blocked by his opponents, because if he does not manage to get enough votes, he might not have governability in the next four years.
In this challenge, a weighty problem is that the former mayor of Bogotá has been a staunch opponent –and has even been involved in fights– with Álvaro Uribe, Andrés Pastrana, Dilian Francisca Toro, Germán Vargas Lleras and the Char, natural leaders of the Democratic Center, Conservative Party , The U, and Radical Change, respectively.
However, if the former mayor of Bogotá comes to power, he might dialogue with the bulk of the Liberal Party bench, which has maintained a more neutral position, as well as with the Green Alliance, an alternative party that in 2018 gave him support for the second round. .
Would Rodolfo have it easier?
The former mayor of Bucaramanga has an advantage, because a sectarianism has not been created around him as in the case of the candidate of the Historical Pact, since the aforementioned bloc of opposition parties has insisted that the former president of Bogotá might be a ” threat to democracy and freedoms”, arguments with which they have set a blockade not only in the face of the presidential elections, but also in the face of an eventual government of his.
Although Hernández only has the fixed support of the two elected congressmen of his political movement, in practical terms it might be said that he would receive the support of the parties that backed former presidential candidate Federico Gutiérrez, who announced that he will electorally support the engineer in the second round, the 19th of June.
Thus, the former mayor of the Santander capital might have at least 55 congressmen supporting him in the Senate and 80 in the Chamber, if the support of groups such as the Conservative, Democratic Center, La U, Mira and Cambio Radical are added. With whom he will have to dialogue and seek consensus so that they easily approve the bills and reforms that he would make in his eventual government.
The only conflict in that relationship is that during the presidential campaign Hernández has tried to paint himself as an enemy of the congressmen. He even assured that he would issue a decree to take away the trucks provided by the State. If he comes to power, he will have to see how he lowers his tone to seek support from congressmen.
In any case, this is a preliminary x-ray of the balance of forces in Congress, since we will have to wait until following the inauguration on July 20 to find out how the benches will be divided between the government, opposition and independents.
