2024-01-13 08:06:33
For several days, the rumor has been circulating in the media and on social networks: an asteroid ” lost “ will hit Earth on October 5. What is it really and should we prepare for the worst?
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It’s called 2007 FT3 and, as the name suggests, this asteroid was first observed in 2007. For the first and only time, in fact. Hence the qualifier which is now associated with it: ” lost “. But this was enough for astronomersastronomers to estimate its size. Around 314 meters (almost that of the Eiffel Tower). And to calculate its orbit. It has since appeared on the list of asteroids likely to cross paths with Earth. Cneos researchers (Center for Near Earth Object Studies) from NASA have even identified several dozen potential impact points. Among which, the one that many media have talked regarding in recent days. That of October 5, 2024.
However, there is no real reason to panic. NASA itself confirms this. No known asteroid measuring more than 140 meters — a size at which damage begins to become significant — has a significant chance of hitting Earth in the next 100 years. But then, why Center for Near Earth Object Studies he announces a “point of potential impact” ?
The impact with the asteroid would be devastating
You should know that astronomers speak of “point of potential impact” as soon as an object approaches the Earth’s orbit within 30 million kilometers. For comparison, our MoonMoon is only regarding 385,000 kilometers away from us. And to return to 2007 FT3, a potential point of impact between this asteroid and the orbit of our Planet had already been planned for October 2013 and for October 2019 without us feeling the effects.
Let us point out, however, that scientists estimate that a collision between Earth and an asteroid of the size and mass — approximately 54 million tons — of 2007 FT3 would release energy energy equivalent to 2.6 billion tons of TNT. . That’s almost as much as if all the nuclear bombs in the world were detonated in the same place.
More risk of being struck by lightning
To return to the risk of collision estimated by NASA, it is of the order of one chance in 11 million for October 5, 2024. A risk of the same order as that which had been estimated for 2019. And another point The potential impact is identified for March 3, 2030. This time, there is a one in a million chance of collision. A little more than the risk of impact estimated for 2013. But this remains tiny compared for example to the risk of being struck by lightning which is of the order of 1 in 135,000. Even more compared to the risk of another object named 29075 (1950 DA) collides with the Earth. An impact between this asteroid and our Planet would release some 75 billion tons of TNT. The object has been tracked for more than 50 years and the chances of a collision actually occurring are of the order of one in 34,500. But this should not happen before 2880!
This still gives us time to see it coming. And if necessary, prepare a mission to try to deviate from its trajectory. Concerning 2007 FT3, finding it in the sky would allow astronomers to record new data which would help to clarify its trajectory a little more. And perhaps to remove it from the list of asteroids that threaten our Planet and humanity.
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