The Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) cut the soybean production projection by 25% compared to its previous estimate last month to 37 million tons due to the drought, and a harvest is expected 13% lower than the previous season. 2021/22.
“Argentina is suffering from a very serious scenario: a 25% drop in production is already estimated compared to the 49 million tons that were expected with a normal climate scenario in December. 12 million tons of the oilseed are already considered lost and an estimated 37 million tons will be the third worst Argentine harvest in the last 15 years,” the BCR said in a report.
In addition, the entity warned that “the short, medium and long-term scenarios are adverse for the country and it is feared that the next cut will leave the 2022/23 cycle with the worst production figure in this series of data.”
Lack of rains affected soybeans
The lack of rain was the key factor for the drop in the production estimate for this campaign, which will be 5.2 million tons below what was obtained last cycle, when threshing totaled 42.2 million tons.
#Military Estimation of the @BCRprensa 37 Mt. The third worst harvest in the last 15 years. pic.twitter.com/dcwIm3lfoh
— Joaquin Aguirre (@jaguirre_MD) January 12, 2023
As detailed in the report by the stock exchange, until a month ago 17.1 million hectares (ha) were expected to be planted with the oilseed, but only 16 million managed to be implanted, 1.1 million hectares less than expected.
“360,000 hectares in Santa Fe, the province most affected by the lack of water, have been discounted from the original intention. In Buenos Aires the cut is 300,000; in Entre Ríos, 220,000 and in Córdoba, 205,000″, indicated the BCR.
“It is the first time in 15 years that such a level of hectare is discounted. Not even in the 2008/09 cycle, a cycle that until now had been the example of the worst water scenario, had something similar happened.” He added.
The national yield of soybeans
If the estimated volume of 37 million tons materializes, there will be almost 13% less harvest than a year ago, whose campaign was also affected by the lack of water.
It is estimated a national yield of almost 24 quintals per hectare and an area that will not be harvested at 504,000 hectares.
Finally, the entity warned that “area losses, especially in second-rate soybeans, can skyrocket and start to be massive if there is no imminent help from significant and widespread rains.”