A Russian tank abandoned in Kiiu, the Ukrainian capital. [사진 출처 = 연합뉴스]Analysts say that Russia’s misjudgment that the war in Ukraine would end quickly was due to decades of erroneous espionage.
The Washington Post (WP), an American media outlet, reported on the 19th (local time) that the biggest reason Russia struggled in the Ukraine war was the result of repeated misjudgments in the department responsible for establishing Ukraine’s pro-Russian regime.
The WP said that it had obtained data from intelligence agencies such as Ukraine.
According to Ukrainian and western officials, the Russian intelligence agency, the Federal Security Service (FSB), was confident that it would soon seize the capital, Kiiu, even before the invasion. The FSB even ordered intelligence officers in Ukraine to evacuate days before the invasion.
The FSB agent also congratulated a colleague who was leaving to watch the Russian occupation of Ukraine in advance, saying, “Have a successful business trip.”
However, the Russians were unable to capture Kiiu and the FSB Yongwon was unable to enter the capital.
The Russian army retreated due to the strong resistance from Ukraine.
The WP analyzed that the reason the FSB failed to neutralize the Ukrainian government was because it did not foresee such strong resistance or, even if it did, it failed to properly communicate the situation to President Vladimir Putin.
What’s more, the FSB did not foresee such a situation even though it had been focused on Ukrainian espionage for decades.
For example, in a poll conducted in January just before the war, 48% answered in the affirmative to the question ‘Are you ready to defend Ukraine if necessary?’ In response, the Ukrainian side evaluated that it was a sign of determination that many of its citizens were willing to stand up and take up arms directly against Russia.
William Taylor, who served as the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine twice, said, “How can you be wrong that Russian intelligence has given a high priority to collecting information from Ukraine?”
Neither Ukraine nor the United States accurately predicted the war.
A high-ranking Ukrainian official said he could not even imagine that Russia would carry out a traditional aggression with tanks, artillery and infantry as it did in World War II.
“Russia was expecting someone to open the door, not resistance,” he said.
The United States also acknowledged that it expected a Russian invasion of Ukraine but underestimated Ukraine’s anti-war capabilities.
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