Kyiv, Ukraine.
The war in ukraine and the rise in the price of raw materials threaten a World economy still not recovered from the crisis of the covid-19 and represent a cold water jug in early 2022.
A RECOVERY AT RISK?
“The war came at a time when Europe and the United States took advantage of a excellent recovery”, points out Jacob Kirkegaard, from the German Marshall Fund think tank.
In just two weeks, the Russian invasion “greatly increased” risksrecognized on Thursday the president of the Banco Central Europea (ECB), Christine Lagarde.
The monetary institution reduced its growth forecast for the eurozone in 2022, to 3.7%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) He also warned that he will lower his.
The rating agency S&P Global predicted a 0.7 point decline in world growth down to 3.4%, due to the foreseeable fall in Russian GDP and the energy prices.
The war in ukraine could cost theto European Union (EU) 175,000 million euros ($192 billion) for energy prices, the refugee reception and budget support, according to Jean-Pisani Ferry, an economist at the Bruegel institute.
Pero Kirkegaard no teme big recessions, but rather a stagflation, a phenomenon which combines stagnant growth with a high inflation.
WHY ARE PRICES INCREASING?
This inflation It has been persistent for a year. It was initially linked to the ruptura of the chains suppliedor, but now it is due to the rise in the price of raw Materials, that strains the production costs of companies and the power purchasing power of households.
“We are faced with a oil crisisto which is added a gas crisis and one electricity crisis. This coincidence has never been seen before”, states Thomas Pellerin-Carlin, from the Jacques Delors European Institute.
The president of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), Jerome Powell, indicated that each increase in 10 oil dollars represents 0.1 points less growth and 0.2 more inflation. His country recorded 7.9% inflation in February.
Beyond the hydrocarbonsthe aluminum pricesnickel, wheat and corn, among others, are also they shot.
The Russian President, Vladimir Putin, even warned against the boomerang effect ofs western sanctions against your country.
Most sectors are affected by the price increase.
For example, in Spain they have already closed steel plants and, in general, the heating, travel and feeding they are getting more and more expensive.
On Egypt, primer world Wheat Importer, “the bread price increased enormously,” Omar Azzam, a 31-year-old Cairo resident, told AFP. From the invasion in Ukraineincreased by 50%.
Usually, Europe and Africa they will be “profoundly destabilized in the food plan” in the next twelve to eighteen months, French President Emmanuel Macron warned on Friday during the European summit in Versailles, specifically, due to the problems of crops in Ukrainea, especially wheat.
For their part, the G7 countries pThey asked the international community on Friday to avoid taking measures to avoid the export from food products.
TOWARDS NEW SUPPORT PLANS?
La expresión “whatever it takes” (whatever it takes)popularized in 2012 by the then head of the ECB Mario Draghi, resulted in 2020 in a historic EU recovery planaccompanied by the issuance of common debt.
United States adopted several massive plans to support the economy, as well as Japan.
But in a financial context degraded public, aid on this occasion should ber more selective and go to the victims of inflation.
As for companies, investors do not anticipate defaults, but a “slight stress”, says Christophe Barraud, economist at the investment company MarketSecurities.
See: Poland warns of the danger of Russia resorting to weapons of mass destruction
In contrast, emerging countries, more vulnerable to inflationn, they could see their situation weaken, including their political stability.
IS THE PANDEMIC STILL THREATENING THE ECONOMY?
Chinathe factory of the world, sIt is still fighting the coronavirus and has just reconfined nine million inhabitants, although it could go further.
“If this happens, the economy will slow down drastically. They will close everything they can close. This uncertainty is at least as great as the war”, warns Kirkegaard.