These are the scenarios that are opening up in Spain in light of Pedro Sánchez’s decision

The decision that the Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, may announce on Monday to leave or remain as head of the Executive, will mark the most immediate political life in the country and opens an uncertain scenario with many questions that, for the most part, have answers in the Constitution, the electoral law and the Congress Regulations.

What if Pedro Sánchez resigns?

The Spanish Constitution provides for the possibility of the Prime Minister resigning from office. Article 101 provides for the scenario of a resignation or death of the head of the Executive or a loss of parliamentary confidence, as might result from a successful motion of censure or the failure of a motion of confidence presented in Congress.

In this case, Sánchez’s resignation would mean that the entire cabinet, including the president himself and his ministers, would continue in office until a new president of the Government is appointed.

This means that during this period the Government would be limited in its powers, without the capacity to legislate or call elections.

Who would appoint the new president?

As is the case following a general election, Congress would be in charge of choosing Sánchez’s successor. The process, established in article 99 of the Constitution, would be identical to that of the investitures that take place following elections to Congress and the Senate.

The first thing the Socialist Party (PSOE) would have to do is designate a candidate for investiture, if Sánchez himself has not already proposed one in his resignation message.

As a matter of hierarchy in the cabinet, it is natural that among these successors there would be the first vice-president, María Jesús Montero; the Minister of the Presidency, Félix Bolaños; or the government spokesperson, Pilar Alegría.

However, it is not necessary for Sánchez’s replacement to be a member of the Government, or even a member of parliament, or a member of the PSOE.

Once this uncertainty has been cleared up, King Felipe VI would hold a round of consultations with the spokespersons of the parties represented in Congress from smallest to largest and, following listening to their opinions, would appoint a candidate.

In this hypothesis, the candidate designated by the monarch to succeed Sánchez would be subject to the investiture debate and to be elected he would have to receive the support of the absolute majority of Congress (176 deputies out of 350) in the first round or more yeses than noes in the second round.

If the candidate were to fail to be elected, a two-month period would begin during which new candidates proposed by the king might run for the presidency.

If following these two months no candidate wins the confidence of Congress, the Cortes would automatically dissolve and new elections would be called.

Can elections be called?

The answer is no, for now. If Pedro Sánchez decides to continue in office, he would have to wait until the end of May to call a new date with the polls.

The law establishes that early elections cannot be called until one year following the previous dissolution of the Cortes, which became effective with its publication in the Official State Gazette on May 30, 2023.

To call them, the President of the Government cannot be in office, so either Sánchez remains in office, or his successor should be the one to call them, but not before that deadline.

Only then might the decree of dissolution and the calling of elections be approved, which would be held following 54 days.

This would push the elections to the last week of July at the earliest. The law does not stipulate that they must be held on a Sunday, but if they were, the earliest date would be July 28.

What if Sanchez stays but submits to a vote of confidence?

One possibility is that the president decides to remain in office but presents a motion of confidence, a provision included in the Constitution.

The vote of confidence is a revalidation of the investiture to which the President of the Government voluntarily submits himself in moments of weakness before the Parliament that elected him and through which he expressly requests support for his continuity.

According to the Congress Regulations, the debate is held in the same format as the investiture sessions. Confidence is deemed to have been granted when the vote of a simple majority of the Deputies is obtained, that is, more yeses than noes.

If Sánchez were not to obtain the confidence of Congress, the same thing would happen as if he had resigned and the process to elect a new president would begin, with consultations with the king and a new investiture debate.