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Ukraine warThese 5 factors will shape the course of the war in 2023
According to a military expert, accurate predictions regarding the war in Ukraine are difficult. However, he sees the further course dependent on five decisive factors.
… as pointed out by Australian military expert and former General Mick Ryan. However, he sees five key variables that will significantly determine the coming months.
Defence Connect
A first factor is the ammunition and how economical the Ukrainian and Russian troops can use it. Stocks are low. For recaptures, Ukraine will need a lot of additional ammunition.
AFP
That’s what it’s regarding
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An Australian military expert emphasizes that precise forecasts in the Ukraine war are difficult to make.
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However, he sees five important factors that will probably have a major impact on the war in 2023.
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These include, for example, the mobilization and training of new troops, arms deliveries by the West and China’s attitude.
On Twitter, military expert and former Australian General Mick Ryan stressed how difficult it is to make predictions regarding the Ukraine war because the fighting is so dynamic. In addition, the balance of power is very difficult to determine. Nevertheless, Ryan sees some central factors that will probably have a significant influence on the further course of the war. The military expert has compiled these five variables:
1. Munition
According to Mick Ryan, Ukraine, Russia and many of their allies have been using large amounts of precision ammunition, causing stocks to plummet. The expert sees a possible solution in Ukraine “fighting like the Americans” and using less ammunition. Nevertheless, the Ukrainians will need a lot of ammunition for recaptures.
Therefore, according to Ryan, a medium-term solution is to increase the production capacity of the western defense industry in favor of Ukraine. However, so far only the USA has indicated that it intends to do so. As this might take up to a year, Ukraine will have no choice but to use existing supplies more efficiently. Russia faces similar problems here.
2. Mobilization and training of troops
The military expert writes that Ukraine has reportedly mobilized around 700,000 units so far and is currently superior to Russian troops in terms of both numbers and motivation. “Ukraine has mobilized its armed forces early and is constantly training regular and territorial forces for defensive and offensive operations,” writes Ryan.
The “partial mobilization” of Russia announced in September last year has apparently been tightened following initial difficulties. The fact that tens of thousands of new Russian soldiers are pouring into Ukraine and that more will be added in 2023 is a major challenge for the defenders. “The ability of both sides to mobilize their people as effectively as possible is a key variable in this war,” Ryan said.
3. Western Arms Support
Ryan emphasizes that Ukraine cannot win the war purely through defensive operations. The West has played and continues to play an important role in providing advanced weapons systems. He proceeded step by step and did not immediately make all the systems available – also because the corresponding logistics and training must be guaranteed so that Ukraine can benefit from them in the long term.
There are critical voices in Europe and the USA when it comes to making weapons such as tanks or long-range ATACMS missiles available to Ukraine. To reach a tipping point in 2023, however, Ryan says the West must overcome this fear. Because the advanced weapons are necessary so that Ukraine can reconquer all of its territory.
4. China’s attitude
Ryan sees China’s previously “neutral” stance as a win for Ukraine. The attitude can be explained, among other things, by trade relations with the USA, although there are a number of other factors. However, China is also dependent on Russian raw materials such as coal, oil and liquid gas. “If the Chinese come to the conclusion that supporting Russia is more important than trade relations with the United States, Russia’s fate might change significantly,” the military expert summarizes.
5. Key State Leadership
“Putin’s leadership started this war, and Zelensky’s leadership has united a nation that resists the Russian onslaught,” Ryan describes the importance of the Ukrainian president. “In 2023, Europe and some members of the US Congress will put more pressure on Biden and Zelenski to find peaceful solutions to the war,” he said.
Ryan also emphasizes Joe Biden’s role as President of the United States. This is important to solidify Western resolve and coordinate a steady flow of aid to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin is speculating that the West is getting tired of war and is therefore playing for time. “The ability of Biden and Zelenski to keep Europe and America united in their support for Ukraine’s war effort in 2023 will be a key variable for the coming year,” Ryan said.
