After the government expanded anti-epidemic measures and banned dine-in in the evening market, relevant people in the industry complained a lot. A friend in the catering industry asked me if the government’s so-called “fast, ruthless and accurate” anti-epidemic method really does what the government said, it can control the epidemic within 14 days, and cancel the ban on dine-in in the evening market before the Lunar New Year.
I responded with a wry smile: The government has expanded the restrictions on gatherings since January 7, and the two-week deadline will arrive next Friday (January 21). However, the Centre for Health Protection announced yesterday (January 12) that due to concerns regarding the spread of the epidemic in Tuen Mun District, it called on residents in the district to conduct inspections. Since the epidemic is still spreading in different regions, why can the ban on dine-in in the evening market be lifted next Friday? According to the current situation, there is a good chance that the entire Lunar New Year will be spent in strict gathering restrictions. On the contrary, if it is reluctantly restarted without clearing it, there is a good chance that it will be stopped once more.
At the Legislative Council Q&A session, Member Chen Kaixin asked Chief Executive Carrie Lam whether Hong Kong would follow the example of the Mainland to conduct regional and national testing? Chief Executive Carrie Lam refused, saying that the current community quarantine policy in Hong Kong is very effective, and believes that the immediate enclosing and testing of buildings with suspected confirmed cases or close contact with people is very effective. She said that as of today, Hong Kong has completed more than 30 building enclosure tests, and issued mandatory testing orders for more than 460 locations. In the past ten days, more than 900,000 virus tests have been completed, and numerous tracking work has been done. Therefore, Omicron has no presence in Hong Kong. Geometric burst.
Carrie Lam pointed out that in the fifth wave of the epidemic, seven out of 34 local confirmed cases were sent to quarantine centers when they were found to be confirmed cases, proving that the government’s tracking measures are highly effective. In September 2020, Hong Kong conducted a social universal test, testing 1.4 million people (should be 1.78 million) and only finding a few 30 confirmed cases. Compared with the current focus, it has been done 900,000 times, and 70% of the cases have been found. Everyone knows that it is effective. She described that “there is a good proven (effective) method to control the epidemic, but you have to give up and put your manpower and material resources to another method in Hong Kong that has not been proven, or even has not been done.” She believes that Hong Kong cannot blindly follow the quarantine practices of other regions.
Hong Kong does not want to follow the mainland to carry out nationwide testing. There are several questions to consider:
First, chasing following 70% is like getting away with 30%. The Chief Executive said that 70% of the cases were tracked by the government and sent to the quarantine center to be diagnosed. It can be said that the tracking time did have a certain effect, but more than 30% of the cases were outside the street. After they became ill, they went to the doctor and found out that the virus had been spreading in the community for a period of time. In addition, there are many asymptomatic or mild infected people (who may have been vaccinated), who may have never been discovered, and are equally capable of spreading the virus. They are also unable to be traced by the government’s current anti-epidemic methods.
Second, universal testing in 2020 is not a good example. It was because the SAR government was reluctant to conduct nationwide testing in 2020, but it has been unable to clear it. Under the constant persuasion of the central government, the “universal testing” was conducted in September of that year. All people”, there is no coercion, and it is not bad to reach 1.78 million people. If it is mandatory, such as not being able to go to public places without testing, it may be possible to triple that or more than 5 million people, then instead of finding 32 confirmed cases on that day, more than 90 people will be found, which will not be effective for quick clearing. bigger. Compared with the so-called “focus detection” that has been done 900,000 times (not 900,000), it is quite nondescript. This is comparing apples and oranges, but we really want to It’s regarding watermelon. The “watermelon” we want to talk regarding is a nationwide test in the mainland, or a full-person test. In Hong Kong, more than 6 million people have been tested in at least one round, and several rounds have been carried out.
Third, the benefit of universal testing is that it is quickly cleared. In this round of epidemics in the mainland, Xi’an is the most serious. This wave of epidemics in Xi’an was triggered by a flight from Pakistan to Xianyang Airport in Xi’an on December 4. The authorities took decisive measures to implement a city closure and conduct multiple rounds of national testing. By January 5, Xi’an announced that the social situation had been cleared, and the spread of the epidemic had been completely suppressed. Such a serious epidemic in Xi’an can also be cleared within a month. According to the past record of epidemic outbreaks in many cities in the Mainland, following multiple rounds of large-scale testing, the reset can be achieved within three weeks to one month.
The conclusion is that Hong Kong will at least pay the price of time if it sticks to its own agenda. If you ask the central government to help, you can do 3 or 4 rounds of national testing in two weeks (it can be done in parallel with other flow tracking), or you may hope to clear it before the new year, cancel the ban on dine-in, and have a happy new year. If you don’t do it and only take isolation measures to let the virus burn for at least one or two months, you will have to pay a heavy price for the so-called “effective” anti-epidemic method.
Lu Yongxiong
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