UK EIU publishes white paper on the first year of the Ukrainian war… “Prolonged war, continued stalemate”
“Russia, China alone cannot make up for the blow… The global economy will be rebalanced”
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(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Kim Dong-ho = As the war that began with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues for a full year, pessimistic prospects have been raised that an end to the war through peace negotiations within this year will be far off.
Analysts say that as the war drags on, the distance between Russia, a country rich in natural resources, and the West will grow farther and farther away, which will inevitably lead to a readjustment of the global economic supply chain.
On the 19th, the ‘Economist Intelligence Unit’ (EIU), an economic analysis agency affiliated with the British current affairs weekly The Economist, predicted this in a white paper titled ‘Ukraine War: Severing Russia-Western Relations’.
First of all, the EIU predicted that although both Russia and Ukraine are preparing for a spring offensive, the intensity of the war will gradually decrease in the future, resulting in a prolonged stalemate in which both sides repeatedly advance and retreat on the front.
Russia has already suffered a serious blow in terms of the size of its troops and equipment, and even if it mobilizes additional military forces in the future, it is predicted that it will be difficult to achieve great results. It was evaluated that Ukraine would also find it difficult to escape the situation of manpower and material shortages.
However, the EIU analyzed that “Russia’s plan to promote anti-Ukrainian sentiment in Europe will fail,” and “Western support for Ukraine will continue.” Declining arms and ammunition stockpiles in Western allies pose a threat, but efforts to provide Ukraine with counterattack capabilities will continue, analysts say.
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Regarding the end of the war, there was a pessimistic outlook.
“There will be no peace negotiations,” the EIU said. “Both Russia and Ukraine are engaged in a doomed war, and neither side will be willing to agree to an end to the war that will require concessions within this year.”
As Russia has already kicked off the “10 conditions” negotiations proposed by Ukraine, it is expected that even if the two sides sit face to face in the future, the topic will be limited to grain export agreements.
The EIU predicted that the West might impose additional sanctions on countries suspected of helping to circumvent sanctions, such as Iran, while continuing sanctions once morest Russia currently in effect in the economic and financial sectors.
“Russia’s economy will further contract due to the oil price cap and the embargo on oil-related products imposed by the G7 major countries on Russian crude oil,” he predicted.
In particular, the sanctions affect domestic manufacturing in Russia, resulting in reduced production and unstable supply and demand in the domestic market, which might lead to aggravation of domestic public opinion.
Meanwhile, the EIU analyzed that the ‘decoupling’ (decoupling) phenomenon of the European and Russian economies amid the prolonged war would intensify.
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Europe has been dependent on Russian natural gas for one-third of its total energy consumption, but since the war, supply has not been smooth, so it is looking for new energy sources.
The EIU predicts that the speed at which the global order will transform into a multipolar system will accelerate as China, Turkey, or other Western countries emerge at the same time as Russia’s influence, which had the halo of the former Soviet Union, diminishes.
Russia, which will inevitably increase its trade dependence on China, is expected to seek to advance into emerging markets such as Africa and Latin America.
In the followingmath of sanctions such as the crude oil ceiling, international crude oil and natural gas prices will remain high for the time being, which will affect the unit price of fertilizer production, which can further increase food prices.
War damage continues in Ukraine, a world-class granary, and uncertainties related to grain shipments are expected to continue.
The EIU noted that Russia is a major producer of gold, metals, fertilizers and foodstuffs, and said that “the readjustment of global supply chains will continue without a clue to resolving the war.”
“Friendshoring,” which prioritizes trade and investment relations between friendly countries, will continue to be pursued in 2023, the EIU said. It will become important,” he added.
dk@yna.co.kr
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2023/02/19 05:00 Send
