Coffee prices soar
According to the bulletin of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), in January 2023, the domestic price of Robusta coffee increased sharply according to the world price. Specifically, on January 28, 2023, the price of Robusta coffee increased from 3,000 to 3,100 VND/kg compared to December 30, 2022.
In Lam Dong and Dak Lak provinces, the price of Robusta coffee also increased by 3,100 VND/kg, to 42,200 – 42,800 VND/kg; In Gia Lai and Dak Nong provinces, the price of Robusta coffee also increased by 3,000 VND/kg to 42,800 VND/kg.
In the world market, according to the Import-Export Department, in January 2023, the price of Robusta coffee increased sharply compared to the end of 2022, reaching the highest level in 3 months, thanks to funds and speculators buying compensation. for contracts that have been heavily sold short before.
Besides, the US economic index reports with positive data supported most commodity markets in general when speculating that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might slow down the interest rate hike. USD interest rate at the upcoming monetary management meeting in early February 2023. In addition, the price of Robusta coffee increased thanks to the information that inventories decreased.
The Import-Export Department forecasts that the world coffee price will continue to recover thanks to the increase in global coffee consumption demand after two years of sharp decline due to the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic and global inflation. will slow down before the efforts of most central banks in the world to manage monetary interest rates.
According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), global coffee consumption in the 2022-2023 crop year is expected to increase by more than 800,000 bags to 167.9 million bags, with increases mainly in the European Union, the United States and Brazil. Thus, world coffee supply will exceed demand by 4.8 million bags in the crop year 2022-2023.
USDA also forecasts that world coffee exports will decrease by 3 million bags in the 2022-2023 crop year, to 116.1 million bags.
Meanwhile, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) kept its forecast for global coffee production in the 2022-2023 crop year at 167.2 million bags (60kg bags), down 2.1% from 170. 8 million bags of the previous crop year.
While world coffee consumption is forecast to increase 3.3% to 170.3 million bags in the 2022-2023 crop, compared with 164.9 million bags in the 2020-2021 crop. Thus, consumption is expected to exceed production by 3.1 million bags.
Coffee prices increased right from the beginning of January 2023. Photo: KN
Vietnam is the third largest source of coffee for the US
Currently, the US is a major coffee export market of Vietnam. According to statistics from the General Department of Customs, in 2022, Vietnam exported 129,540 tons of coffee to the US market, worth US$305.13 million, down 3.3% in volume, but up 11.6% in value compared to 2021.
Coffee exports to the US market showed signs of recovery in the last months of 2022, reaching the highest level of the year at 19,760 tons, worth $43.37 million in December 2022.
In 2022, the average export price of Vietnam’s coffee to the US will reach 2,355 USD/ton, up 15.5% compared to 2021. In which, the average export price of Robusta coffee to the US will reach 1,965 USD/ton. tons, up 13%; Arabica coffee reached 4,451 USD/ton, up 53.1%.
In 2022, Vietnam exports Robusta, Arabica and processed coffee varieties to the US market. In which, the export of Robusta coffee to the US reached 109,420 tons, worth USD 214.98 million, down 1.2% in volume, but up 11.7% in value compared to 2021; Arabica coffee reached 10,100 tons, worth 44.97 million USD, down 17% in volume, but up 27.1% in value; processed coffee reached over 45 million USD, up 1.0%.
According to the Import-Export Department, Vietnam still mainly exports Robusta coffee to the US in raw form, which has not brought high value to the industry.
In 2023 and the following years, Vietnam’s coffee industry needs to promote branding, planning the development of suitable raw material areas, on par with development requirements, promoting the application of science and technology, and transforming digital, green transformation, meeting strict requirements from the US market.
In 2022, the United States imports coffee from more than 100 countries and territories around the world. In which, the US imports coffee mainly from the markets of Brazil, Colombia, Vietnam, Guatemala, Mexico… Brazil is the source of the supply. largest coffee for the United States in 11 months of 2022, import volume reached over 428 thousand tons, worth approximately 1.85 billion USD, up 1.1% in volume and 68.9% in value compared to same period in 2021.
Vietnam is the third largest source of coffee for the United States in the first 11 months of 2022, with an import volume of approximately 133.2 thousand tons, valued at USD 310.44 million, up 2.5% in volume and 29 percent. 9% in value over the same period in 2021.