1. Weather
1. Domestic situation
Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other places have scattered to heavy rains：From 08:00 yesterday to 06:00 today, the overall rainfall in my country was weak, with scattered heavy rains in northeastern Qinghai, the Hetao area of Inner Mongolia, northwestern Shanxi and northwestern Jiangsu, northern Shanghai, northern and eastern Zhejiang, northern Fujian, and western Sichuan Basin. or heavy rain.
The high temperature in the southern region continues:Yesterday, high temperatures above 37°C occurred in the Sichuan Basin, northeastern Guizhou, southern Shaanxi, southwestern and eastern Hubei, southern Jiangsu and Anhui, Shanghai, Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Fujian, northeastern Guangxi, and northern Guangdong. In parts of central and western Chongqing, central and northern Jiangxi, central and northern Zhejiang, and northwestern Fujian, the temperature is 40 to 43 °C, and the temperature in Chongqing Beibei is 44.7 °C; Sichuan, Guizhou, Zhejiang, Fujian, Hunan, Jiangxi, Guangdong and Shaanxi are in a total of 53 countries. The station temperature broke through the historical extreme.
2. Live abroad
Strong precipitation occurred in India, the Philippines, Central Europe and other places:Moderate to heavy rain, local heavy rain or heavy rain, accompanied by thunderstorms and strong winds Wait for strong convective weather.
High temperatures continued in West Asia, North Africa, the western United States and other places:High temperature weather above 35°C occurred in West Asia, southern India, North Africa, western southern Europe, western United States, Mexico, and central Brazil. The daily maximum temperature in the southwestern United States, northern Mexico and other places reached 38 to 42 °C, and the local temperature exceeded 44 °C.
Second, the key weather forecast
1. Domestic key weather
(1) There is still more precipitation in eastern Northwest China, North China and other places
From the 24th to the 25th, there will be moderate to heavy rain and local heavy rain in eastern Qinghai, central and eastern Gansu, Ningxia, central and southern Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Henan. mm; in addition, there will be thunderstorms, strong winds or hail weather locally in eastern Qinghai, eastern Gansu, and southern Ningxia.
From the 27th to the 30th, there were heavy to heavy rains and local heavy rains in central and eastern Gansu, southern Ningxia, most of Shaanxi, southern Shanxi, northern and western Sichuan Basin, northern Henan, western Shandong, northern Jiangsu and Anhui, and eastern Guizhou.
(2) “Saddle” will affect South China
The center of this year’s No. 9 typhoon “Ma’an” (strong tropical storm level) was located on the northern sea surface of the South China Sea, regarding 700 kilometers southeast of Yangjiang, Guangdong at 5 o’clock this morning. The maximum wind force near the center was 10 (25 m/s). The lowest pressure in the center is 985 hPa, and the radius of the seventh-level wind circle is 200-240 kilometers.
It is expected that the “Saddle” will move to the west-north at a speed of regarding 25 kilometers per hour, and its intensity will gradually increase. It will land on the coast from Shenzhen, Guangdong to Zhanjiang from the morning to the followingnoon of the 25th (25-33 m/s, 10 -12 level, severe tropical storm level or typhoon level), the intensity gradually weakened following landfall (see Figure 1).
Affected by it, from 08:00 on the 24th to 08:00 on the 25th, the northeastern waters of the South China Sea, the central and eastern waters of the South China Sea, the Bashi Strait, the southern waters of the Taiwan Strait, the eastern part of the Beibu Gulf, the waters near the Xisha Islands, the waters near the Zhongsha Islands, and Taiwan Island. There will be strong winds of magnitude 6-8 along the southwestern coast, the coast of Guangdong, and the eastern coast of Hainan Island. The wind force in the nearby sea areas or areas where the “Saddle” center passes by can reach magnitude 9-12, and gusts of magnitude 13-14; southern Guangdong and northeast Hainan Island. There are heavy rains or torrential rains in the Ministry and the southern coast of Guangxi, and there are local heavy rains (100-120 mm).The Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue a yellow typhoon warning at 06:00 on August 24。
picture1 This year’s No. 9 typhoon “Masa” path probability forecast map for the next 48 hours（8moon24Day 05Time-26Day 05Time)
(3) There are still high temperatures in Jiangnan and other places in the Sichuan Basin
There will still be high temperature weather in the southern region in the next three days; from the 26th, the high temperature range and intensity in the Sichuan Basin and Jiangnan will be reduced, and some areas will be lifted.
It is expected that during the day on August 24, the temperature in southern Shaanxi, southern Anhui, western and southeastern Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, central and southern Zhejiang, Fujian, central and eastern Sichuan, Chongqing, eastern and northern Guizhou, Guangdong, Guangxi and other places will be 35-39 °C. High temperature weather, among them, the highest temperature in parts of eastern Sichuan, Chongqing, eastern Jiangxi, western Fujian and other places can reach above 40 ℃ (see Figure 2).Central Meteorological Observatory8moon24DayAt 06:00, the high temperature orange warning continued to be issued.
picture2 National high temperature drop area forecast map (8moon24Day08Time-20Time)
2. Foreign key weather
(1) Continued high temperature in West Asia, North Africa, the western United States and other places
In the next three days, high temperature weather above 35°C will continue in West Asia, central and southern Central Asia, North Africa, western southern Europe, western United States, northern Mexico, and central Brazil, and the daily maximum temperature in parts of West Asia and North Africa will exceed 42°C.
(2) Heavy precipitation in India, the Philippines, the southern United States and other places
In the next three days, Indus Plain, Ganges Plain, Indochina Peninsula, Indonesia, Philippine Islands, Northern Europe, Central Europe, Northern Eastern Europe, Eastern Southern Europe, Southern Alaska, Southern United States and Great Lakes, Mexico, Northern South America, Southern Chile, West Africa, There are moderate to heavy rains, local heavy rains or heavy rains in northern Central Africa, New Zealand and other places, and some of the above areas are accompanied by strong convective weather such as thunderstorms and strong winds.
3. Specific forecast for the next three days
From 08:00 on August 24th to 08:00 on the 25th,There are moderate to heavy rains in parts of eastern Qinghai, central and eastern Gansu, southern Ningxia, central Shaanxi, southern Shanxi, western Sichuan Basin, southern Yunnan, southern Guangdong, southeastern Guangxi, and northeastern Hainan Island. There were torrential rains in parts of Guangdong, east, west and other places, and local heavy rains (100-120 mm) (see Figure 3).
Figure 3 National precipitation forecast map (08:00 on August 24th – 08:00 on August 25th)
From 08:00 on August 25th to 08:00 on the 26th,There are moderate to heavy rains in parts of northeastern Inner Mongolia, northwestern Heilongjiang, western mountainous areas of southern Xinjiang, southern Shaanxi, western Henan, western Sichuan Basin, southeastern Yunnan, central and southern Guangxi, and central and southern Guangdong. Among them, southern and southeastern Guangxi There are heavy rains and local heavy rains (100-200 mm) in parts of the coastal areas, south-eastern Guangxi, Hainan Island and other places. There are winds of magnitude 4 to 6 in parts of central Inner Mongolia, southeastern Guangxi, and southeastern Guangxi (see Figure 4).
Figure 4 National precipitation forecast map (08:00 on August 25th – 08:00 on August 26th)
From 08:00 on August 26th to 08:00 on the 27th,There are moderate to heavy rains in parts of northeastern Qinghai, central Shaanxi, central and southern Henan, central and northern Anhui, southern Jiangsu, most of Zhejiang, western Sichuan Basin, western and southern Guangxi, and central and southern Yunnan. Among them, central Shaanxi and southern Yunnan There are heavy rains in some areas and local heavy rains (100-120 mm). There are winds of magnitude 4 to 6 in parts of central and western Inner Mongolia and other places (see Figure 5).
Figure 5 National precipitation forecast map (08:00 on August 26th – 08:00 on August 27th)
4. Influence and Concern
1. Pay attention to the future development trend of “Masaan” and the strong wind and rain impact on the South China Sea and South China;
2. From the 24th to the 25th, Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Shanxi and other places will have strong rainfall and strong convective weather, and pay attention to the adverse effects on transportation, urban operation, etc., as well as possible secondary disasters;
3. Pay attention to the changing trend of high temperature in the southern region and its adverse effects on energy supply, water resources allocation, sanitation and epidemic prevention, and human health;
4. Drought conditions and impacts from the Sichuan Basin to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.
