NASA went from a one in 1,200 chance a month ago to a one in 560 chance a week ago. Now the risk, still low, is one chance in 360.
Its small code name is “2023 DW”, it is a near-Earth asteroid of the Aten family. It’s regarding 50m in diameter, half the size of a football pitch. It was discovered on February 26 by Esa, the European Space Agency.
The big rock is threatening to the Earth. According to scholarly calculations, it should come very close to the planet in February 2046. On February 14, precisely, Valentine’s Day, according to NASA specialists.
Barely above 1 on the Torino scale
In an initial count, the probability of the asteroid hitting Earth was 1 in 1,200. It was March 1. A week ago, the probability went from 1 in 560. And therefore from 1 in 360 today.
European counterparts remain much more weighted. They summoned the Turin scale which makes it possible to quantify the risk of collision and the destructive potential of the collision. A scale that has 10 levels and in the case of “2023 DW” the risk is slightly higher than 1: a risk of collision “very unlikely”, according to the nomenclature.
Under surveillance
Moreover, the Esa wrote on its Twiiter account: “Don’t worry, it is common for asteroids to appear, at first, more dangerous than they really are”. At CNN, engineer Davide Farnocchia had reassured: “This object is not particularly worrying”.
Don’t worry, but better be careful. On its TRwitter account, NASA says: “Orbit analysts will continue to monitor asteroid 2023 DW and update forecasts as data arrives.”