“There is a chance to win if there are at least 9 times the attacking force”… Ukrainian capital imminent street fight [러, 우크라 침공]

[로이터 = 연합뉴스]

news="" agency=""/>

On the 14th (local time), the 19th day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the defense line in the capital, Kiiu, is gradually collapsing, and it is predicted that a street fight will begin in earnest soon.

The British daily The Telegraph analyzed that if a street fight in Kiiu broke out on that day, it might inflict a heavy blow to the Russian army in a situation where it would be advantageous to defend.

The Telegraph, however, was concerned that the Russian military might use its overwhelming military force to implement a devastating strategy in order to overcome this, and in this case, enormous civilian damage would be expected.

Urban warfare in large cities is generally unfavorable to the attackers. The defending side can make good use of the terrain characteristics, and due to the nature of the city, you never know what will happen when. For this reason, the attacking force must collect a lot of information in advance, and highly trained soldiers must be deployed.

[로이터 = 연합뉴스]

news="" agency=""/>

However, as already reported in the media, many of the Russian troops deployed to Ukraine are young and inexperienced.

This is one of the reasons why Ukraine will have an advantage if street fighting starts in earnest.

In particular, the Ukrainian military has a large number of anti-tank weapons supported by the West. A typical example is the British-Swedish joint venture NLAW. In the case of NLAW, it is an anti-tank missile launcher that has almost no followingshock when fired. Therefore, since it can be fired from any point in any building in the city, tanks and anti-tank vehicles entering the city are inevitably exposed to anti-tank missiles coming from all directions.

A ‘hedgehog’ that can delay advance by drilling a hole in a Russian tank tire is also expected to play a role.

Hedgehogs are made by welding angled metal rods and have been used since World War II to block or damage tanks, and it is known that tens of thousands of them have already been made.

Firefighters put out a fire in an apartment that was attacked by Russian troops in Ovolon, north of Kyiv, Ukraine, on the 14th (local time). Casualties and damage to civilian facilities are on the rise as Russian forces intensify their offensive to occupy the capital Kiiu. [AFP = 연합뉴스]

Ben Barry, a researcher at the Institute for International War Studies, analyzed that an attacker must have at least nine times more troops to defeat the defender in urban warfare. However, although it is true that Russia’s military power is ahead of Ukraine, it is a common argument among military experts that it is questionable whether it has such a numerical advantage.

However, the situation is different when Russia is engaged in a battle that encircles a city rather than a city battle.

The ground forces do not need to be particularly competent, as only firepower attacks continue. In this case, Ukraine’s advantage would be lost, and numerous civilian casualties would be expected.

“It’s a worst-case scenario for Ukraine to be surrounded by sieges and airstrikes,” said Barry.

Reservist Admiral James Stabridis told the New York Times: “If the Russians want to take Kiiu, they’ll have to fight a battle that combines the city-besieging riots with long-running street fighting. “You will have to pay the price of blood,” he warned.

[이상규 매경닷컴 기자]
[ⓒ 매일경제 & mk.co.kr, 무단전재 및 재배포 금지]