The Russian invasion of Ukraine turned the EU enlargement landscape upside down. The EU, which for years seemed like a closed club, with several countries patiently waiting in line to join, suddenly opened its doors.
“For obvious reasons the EU now sees enlargement as a tool for more security. The budget remains an integral part of the negotiations, but it may not necessarily be the deciding factor,” Thu Nguyen, deputy director of the Center Jacques Delors, an independent think tank based in Paris, told DW. Berlin.
Brussels’ practical interest in eastward expansion is accompanied by the concerns of member countries and European citizens about possible economic losses. The EU spends most of its budget on regional development and agriculture. Less wealthy member states receive more money from the European coffers than they pay out. The eight countries currently seeking membership are all poorer than the existing 27 member states.
Ukraine’s accession would bring the EU to its knees economically
For Jasna Pejović from Montenegro, joining the EU would give her country “greater legitimacy”. Montenegro is currently among the leading candidates for EU membership with 80% of the population in favor of joining the European family. With a population of just 630,000, Montenegro is considered a small country, like many others in the Western Balkans, and would certainly not place a heavy burden on the EU budget.
The accession of the Western Balkans to the EU would provide significant economic prospects to millions of people, at a manageable cost to the EU. However, most of the countries of the Western Balkans have been candidates for EU membership for over ten years. North Macedonia in fact for two decades.
Recently a new candidate country appeared on the horizon: The Ukraine. Harshly tested by the Russian invasion, the country was granted candidate status in June 2022. The most populous (38 million inhabitants) and poorest of all the candidate countries, however, it is a game-changer, says Nathalie Tocchi, adviser to two former foreign policy chiefs EU, “because of its size, its agricultural sector, its wealth and, above all, because it is a country at war, the reconstruction of which requires at least 500 billion euros”.
The inclusion of all candidate countries would cost 256 billion
For some member states, this would mean unwanted competition in the single market. Poland, for example, is today one of the most competitive food producers in the EU, 20 years after it joined in 2004. If Ukraine were to join the EU, Poland’s primacy would be threatened, because Ukraine’s industrialized agricultural units eclipse the European ones.
According to an internal investigation by the European Council, the accession of all candidate countries would cost the EU 256 billion euros, while Ukraine alone would receive 186 billion euros from European funds over seven years, not including the country’s reconstruction costs. The head of the Center Jacques Delors think tank Thu Nguyen estimates, however, that “the economic impact would not be as high as some data suggests.”
According to the protothema, however, the expert is unable to say exactly where the extra money to finance the enlargement will come from: “It is likely that it will come from the current member states. It is also possible that the EU will raise its own money through new resources. For example, there are currently discussions about a tax on plastics or a carbon adjustment mechanism.”
Some of the EU member states are advancing the accession process with unprecedented speed. Whether or not they will achieve their goal will depend on the future composition of the new European Parliament that will be elected in June.
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