2023-12-14 03:03:26
(Sejong = Yonhap Infomax) Reporter Choi Jin-woo = It is estimated that Korea’s working-age population (ages 15 to 64) will decrease by more than 20 million over the next 50 years.
The number of people (youth and elderly population) to be supported per 100 working people will increase by regarding three times compared to the present.
◇Population will collapse by 50 million in 2041… Below 20 million people by 2120
According to the ‘Funeral Population Estimate: 2022-2072’ released by Statistics Korea on the 14th, the total population will decrease from 51.67 million in 2022 to 36.22 million in 2072, assuming the median level.
The median estimate is the most realistic scenario.
The time when the number falls below 50 million is 2041.
The survey from two years ago also showed the year was 2041, but the scale decreased further from 49.998 million to 49.852 million.
Korea’s population is estimated to be 19.657 million in 2120, which is less than 20 million.
In terms of growth rate, the population will decrease by an average of 0.16% per year for 10 years following 2025, and then it will increase even faster, reaching 1.31% in 2072.
Natural increase (number of births – number of deaths) increased from minus 110,000 in 2022 to -270,000 in 2040 and -530,000 in 2072.
◇Working population evaporates by 20 million following 50 years
The working-age population aged 15 to 64 will shrink from 36.74 million in 2022 to 34.17 million in 2030 and 16.58 million in 2072.
This is a decrease of over 20 million people in 50 years.
The proportion of the productive population compared to the total population will reach 71.1% in 2022, but will fall to 45.8% in 2072.
The elderly population aged 65 or older is 8.98 million in 2022, or 17.4% of the total population, but will expand to 17.27 million in 2072, or 44.5%.
The elderly population will exceed 10 million in 2025.
The median age is expected to increase from 44.9 in 2022 to over 50 in 2031, and to 63.4 in 2072.
On the other hand, the youth population aged 0 to 14 is 5.95 million in 2022, but will decrease by less than half to 2.38 million in 2072.
◇The dependency ratio has nearly tripled in 50 years.
The total dependency ratio, which means the number of children and elderly people to be supported per 100 people in the productive population, will increase from 40.6 in 2022 to over 100 in 2058, and to 118.5 in 2072.
After 50 years, the burden will increase threefold.
The youth dependency ratio will fall from 16.2 in 2022 to 11.5 in 2033, and then increase to 14.3 in 2072.
Due to the rapid increase in the elderly population, the elderly dependency ratio will increase from 24.4 in 2022 to over 50 in 2036, and reach 104.2 in 2072.
The aging index, which is the number of elderly people per 100 youth population, will increase from 151 in 2022 to 312 in 2030 and 504 in 2050.
In these statistics, the median scenario assumed a total fertility rate of 1.08 in 2072.
This is half of the total fertility rate of 2.1 to maintain the current status quo.
Life expectancy is 91.1 years overall, 89.5 years for men, and 92.7 years for women.
The number of net international migrants was assumed to be 61,000.
jwchoi@yna.co.kr
(end)
This article was published at 12:00 on the Infomax financial information terminal.
Send article to SNS Send article to Facebook Send article to Twitter Send article to Kakao Story Send article to Kakao Talk Send article to Naver Band Send article to Naver Blog Send article to Pinterest Find other shares
1702524178
#working #population #decrease #million #years.. #burden #supporting #children #elderly #tripled
