The yen falls below 6 once more, welcoming the Japanese switch! When Japan began to limit the entry of overseas tourists in groups from this Friday (June 10), the exchange rate of the yen fell to a new low in more than 20 years. The per 100 yen once morest the Hong Kong dollar fell below 6 once more. There are even pessimistic speculations that there will be a Chances fall below 5 count. The yen has been “low water” for consecutive months, and many “homesick” Hong Kong people have purchased in stages as a tourist reserve. In addition, a local travel agency launched a 7-day Japanese “mini-tour” earlier, with a net tour fee of more than 30,000 yuan per person. However, as the Japanese government has recently announced that there is no limit on the number of tour groups, following the number of people per tour is increased, the group will be added immediately. The group fee is halved to 15,000 yuan to attract customers!
The yen continues to weaken. Yesterday, the price of a money changer in Hong Kong showed that it was “59” once morest the yen. Some citizens immediately bought the yen “stocking”. Mosquito “hope to “lower and lower”. Comprehensive analysis predicts that the yen will test the 135 level once morest the US dollar in the short term, that is, the per 100 yen once morest the Hong Kong dollar will see regarding 5.8, and the next stop will have the opportunity to test the 140 or even 160 level, that is, it is expected to see 5.59 once morest the Hong Kong dollar, or even fall below 5, which is low. About 4.9, will likely hit a 32-year low. Some market participants suggested that they can enter the market in three stages for travel or local property purchases in Japan, but they are not recommended for investment. The first, second and third bets can enter the market at 135, 150 and 160 respectively, and the target at the end of the year is 160, which is regarding 4.89 per 100 yen once morest Hong Kong dollars.
The Bank of Japan says there is no chance of a favorable economy
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda made a “dovish” remark, saying that he will continue to maintain loose monetary policy and ultra-low interest rates to support the economy. He believes that excessively hasty water withdrawals may damage capital expenditure and demand. He also pointed out that if the yen does not fluctuate too much, the exchange rate will not be too much. Weakening is also good for the Japanese economy. On the other hand, the US Federal Reserve has accelerated the pace of interest rate hikes. After taking the lead in raising interest rates by 0.5% last month, the probability of raising interest rates by 0.5% this month and next month is as high as 97% and 88%, and the interest rate gap between the two places will further widen. , making the yen once morest the US dollar hit a low of more than 20 years yesterday, once reported 133.01, down 0.86%, per 100 yen once morest the Hong Kong dollar once reported 5.89, as of 6:30 last night, the decline of the yuan exchange rate slightly converged, reported 132.68 once morest the US dollar, It has depreciated by 0.62%, and has depreciated by more than 15% since the beginning of this year. It has temporarily decreased by 4% this month, and it is quoted at 5.9 once morest the Hong Kong dollar.
The situation in Russia and Ukraine is under attack by the new crown epidemic
While the yen has been falling for a long time, the market continued to sell heavily. Brian Gould, head of trading at Capital.com, said in an external call, “Orders to sell the yen have been coming in 24 hours a day. In the past few days, the trading volume has increased significantly. The high of the year has created more USD/JPY.” Some traders also pointed out that the interest rate gap between Japan and the United States will further expand, and they have sold the yen and bought the dollar, expecting 135 points to be the next milestone.
Mai Cui Cai, an associate professor at the Department of Finance and Decision Making of Baptist University, pointed out that in addition to the interest rate difference between the United States and Japan, Japan is an importer of energy and food. Due to the war in Russia and Ukraine, Japan joined the sanctions once morest Russia, and it needs to transfer other regions to buy oil. The problem of imbalance, “the cost of buying oil and food may increase”, thereby increasing expenses. He pointed out that Japan might improve its foreign trade problems through tourism, but due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, tourist consumption has dropped significantly. Maintaining a weak yen policy by the authorities will help its exports and improve competitiveness. He suggested that if there is a substantial need or travel, you can enter the market. Anyway, it has reached a 20-year low. It is expected that the yen will hit the 140-150 level once morest the US dollar in the market outlook. Daisaku Ueno of Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities said in an external telegram that Japan’s energy is dependent on imports, and importers need to prepare U.S. dollars. Under the high crude oil price, the trade deficit tends to widen, which is not good for the yen. “Even if the actual demander thinks that The price is high and the dollar has to be bought.”
Hokkaido lavender group 15,000 yuan to go
Many Hong Kong people are looking forward to “revisiting” Japan while the yen is falling. EGL Dongying Travel Executive Director Xuan Guoquan (circle chart) said that the decline in the yen has attracted tourists to sign up for group tours, which is also conducive to lowering group fees; and because the Japanese government announced yesterday that there is no limit to the number of tour groups, travel agencies plan to use 10 people. The cost of the group departure is calculated, so that the newly launched 7-day tour of Hokkaido Lavender Garden, the group fee can be reduced to 15,000 yuan, which is halved compared with the earlier estimate of regarding 30,000 yuan for 4 to 6 people. If you need assistance in booking a 7-day return to Hong Kong Quarantine hotels add regarding $4,000. He also revealed that the six-member group that went to Tateyama Kurobe on the 15th of this month has already set off and is currently waiting for a visa. However, Xuan Guoquan pointed out that prices in Japan have risen sharply recently. For example, some local hotels pointed to a 40% increase in electricity bills, and it is difficult to significantly reduce expenses such as house prices and transportation expenses.
UNIQLO says ‘no benefit’ will increase prices
The yen fell, and Hong Kong consumers also looked forward to buying Japanese goods, but that may not be the case. Among them, the weakening of the yen may increase the burden on local companies. Fast Retailing (6288), the parent company of the Japanese fashion brand UNIQLO, is the first to announce that it will increase prices due to rising costs. Some products such as down and Fleece jackets will increase by regarding 1,000 yuan from this fall. Yen; Chairman and CEO Masa Yanai stated in April this year that a weak yen “does no good”. However, there are also Japanese car purchasing companies in Hong Kong who claim to have benefited from the decline in the yen, and the price of new cars has dropped by regarding 10%.
Originally published on AM730 https://www.am730.com.hk/local/Welcome to the switch, the yen fell below 6 and the analysis predicts that the end of the year is not seen or it will pass 5. The 7-day tour fee in Hokkaido is halved to 15,000/322912