If you only followed the news reports about Ukraine, you might think that the war has become a long, exhausting and somewhat boring task.
You would be wrong.
Things are really turning more dangerous every day.
For starters, the longer this war goes on, the more chance there is for catastrophic miscalculations, and the raw material for that is piling up fast and furiously.
Take for example the two leaks high-profile statement from US officials last week about America’s involvement in the Russian-Ukrainian war.
First Lady Jill Biden hands over bottles of Heinz ketchup to Commander Shawn Bradberry, the US Army’s deputy host nation adviser for Romania. Photo by Susan Walsh / POOL / AFP.
First, The New York Times revealed that “the United States has provided intelligence on Russian units that has allowed the Ukrainians to attack and kill many of the russian generals who have been killed in action in the Ukraine war, according to senior US officials.”
Second, the Times, following a report by NBC News and citing US officials, reported that the United States “provided intelligence that helped Ukrainian forces locate and attack” the Moscow, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
This guidance assistance “contributed to the eventual sinking” of the Moskva by two Ukrainian cruise missiles.
As a journalist, I love a good leaked story, and the reporters who broke those stories did powerful research.
At the same time, from what I could gather from senior US officials, who spoke to me on condition of anonymity, the leaks were not part of no strategy in mindand the president Joe Biden he was furious for them.
I was told that he called the director of national intelligence, the director of the CIA and the secretary of defense to make it clear in the strongest and most colorful language that this kind of verbiage is reckless and it has to end immediately, before we end up in a unintentional war with Russia.
The amazing takeaway from these leaks is that they suggest that we are no longer in a proxy war with Russia, but are approaching a direct warand no one has prepared the American people or Congress for that.
Vladimir Putin surely he is under no illusions about how much the US and NATO are arming Ukraine with material and intelligence, but when US officials begin to boast by publicly playing a role in the assassination of Russian generals and the sinking of the Russian flagship, killing many sailors, we could be creating an opportunity for Putin to respond in ways that could dangerously widen this conflict and drag the US down with it. deeper than you want to.
It is doubly dangerous, senior US officials say, because it is becoming increasingly obvious to them that Putin’s behavior not so predictable as it has been in the past.
And Putin is running out of options for some kind of face-saving success on the ground, or even a face-saving off-ramp.
It’s hard to overstate what a catastrophe this war has been for Putin so far.
In fact, Biden pointed out to his team that Putin was trying to do roll back NATO expansion, and ended up laying the groundwork for the expansion of NATO.
So much Finland how Sweden now they are taking steps to join an alliance they have steered clear of for seven decades.
But that is why US officials are quite concerned about what Putin might do or announce at the Victory Day celebration in Moscow on Monday, which marks the anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany by the Soviet Union.
It is traditionally a day of military parades and celebration of the prowess of the Russian army.
Putin could mobilize even more soldiers, make some other provocation or do nothing.
But nobody knows.
Unfortunately, we have to be aware of the fact that it is not only the Russians who would like to engage us more deeply.
Have no illusions: the president Volodymyr Zelenski from Ukraine has been trying to do the same from the beginning:
make Ukraine an immediate NATO member or get Washington to forge a bilateral security pact with kyiv.
I am in awe of Zelensky’s heroism and leadership.
If I were him, I’d be trying to involve the US on my side as he is.
But I am a US citizen and I want us to be careful.
Ukraine was and still is a country mottled by corruption.
That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be helping him.
I’m glad we’re doing it.
I insist that we do.
But my feeling is that the Biden team is walking much further into the Tight rope with Zelensky than meets the eye, wanting to do everything he can to make sure I win this war, but doing it in a way that still keeps some distance between us. and the Ukrainian leadership.
That is so that kyiv does not make the decisions and so that we are not embarrassed by the messy Ukrainian politics after the war.
The view of Biden and his team, according to my reports, is that the United States needs to help Ukraine restore its sovereignty and push back the Russians, but not let Ukraine become a american protectorate on the border with Russia.
We need to stay laser-focused on what’s our national interest and not drifting in ways that lead to exposures and risks we don’t want.
One thing I know about Biden, with whom I traveled to Afghanistan in 2002 when he was a senator and headed the Foreign Relations Committee, is that world leaders don’t fall for him easily.
He has dealt with too many of them throughout his career.
He has a good sense of where American interests end and begin.
Ask the Afghans.
So where are we now?
The Putin’s Plan A. —take kyiv and install their own leader—failed.
And his Plan B, trying to simply take full control of the former industrial heartland of Ukraine, known as Donbaswhich is largely Russian-speaking, is still in doubt.
Putin’s newly reinforced ground forces have made some progress, but they are still limited.
It is spring in the Donbas, which means the ground is still muddy and wet, so Russian armor still has to stay on roads and highways in many areas, making them vulnerable.
As the United States navigates Ukraine and Russia and tries to avoid getting caught, one bright spot in the effort to prevent a broader war is the administration’s success in preventing China provide military aid to Russia.
This has been huge.
After all, it was only on February 4 that China’s president, Xi Jinping, received Putin at the opening of the 2022 Winter Olympics, where they unveiled all kinds of trade and energy deals and then issued a joint statement stating that the friendship between Russia and China “it does not have limits”.
That was then.
After the war began, Biden personally explained to Xi in a lengthy phone call that China’s economic future depends on access to the American and European markets, its two main trading partners, and if China provides military aid to Putin, it would have very negative consequences. for China’s trade with both markets.
Xi did the math and it has been discouraged to help Russia in any military way, which has also weakened Putin.
Western restrictions on shipping microchips to Russia have started to really hamper some of its factories, and China has so far not stepped in.
My bottom line echoes my main line, and I can’t stress it enough:
We have to stick as closely as possible to our original goal, limited and clearly defined, to help Ukraine expel Russian forces as soon as possible or to negotiate their withdrawal when Ukrainian leaders feel the time is right.
But we are dealing with some incredibly unstable elements, in particular a politically wounded Putin.
Bragging about killing their generals and sinking their ships, or falling in love with the Ukraine in a way that will entangle us there forever, is the height of madness.
c.2022 The New York Times Company