The war in Ukraine: analysts identified five options for the deployment of NATO troops in Ukraine

Politico: This is important to know for those who think Putin’s days are numbered

AFP/”Scanpix” photo/Protest once morest Russian elections in Berlin

“Don’t think that social media memes and gimmicks will bring down Vladimir Putin. Only a defeat in Ukraine can do that,” says Politico Opinion Editor Jamie Dettmer in his commentary.

Just because you want something to be true doesn’t mean it is, he says.

And yet, for the past two years, predictions have abounded that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s days were numbered, that Russians would turn away from him, or that he would be ousted in a Kremlin coup by oligarchs and Russia’s elite, now under Western sanctions and angry regarding frozen assets abroad.

Even Mikhail Kasyanov, Putin’s prime minister from 2000 to 2004, confidently predicted that the president’s power might suddenly weaken. M. Kasyanov, now in exile, in 2022. said: “I think there will be a fundamental change in three or four months.”

Another recurring narrative is that Putin is terminally ill. “He has been ill for a long time; I’m sure I have cancer. I think he will die very soon. I hope very soon,” Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, announced at the beginning of last year.

While former Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed coup last summer prompted more hopeful predictions that it would indeed be the beginning of Putin’s downfall, that has not been the case, Politico notes.

Now, nine months on, Mr. Putin’s rule is more solid than ever, and he might become Russia’s longest-reigning ruler since the tsarist era, overtaking Joseph Stalin. And the simulated election, during which he won 87 percent. votes, only further highlighted the obvious fact that he is completely suffocating and repressively controlling his country, despite small flashmobs and critical social media memes, the journalist says.

“The oligarchs know that you can’t go once morest the boss. They need only look at what happened to those who did, from Boris Berezovsky, who was found dead in his home in Berkshire, England, to Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who spent a decade in Putin’s dungeons. And we all know that V. Putin’s friendship with J. Prigozhin also did not prevent the Wagner boss from being blown up on his private plane,” the author of the comment notes.

“Be brave. One day we will win,” said Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of the dead opposition leader Alexei Navalny, following casting her dead husband’s name on the ballot following casting her vote at the Russian embassy in Berlin.

Any time? – asks the journalist.

V. Putin will not disappear anywhere – the West must come to its senses

For many years, V. Putin stubbornly refused to mention the name of A. Navalny, who was the most ardent opponent of the Kremlin for more than a decade – calling him the “Berlin patient” or “this man”. However, during his speech on Sunday, V. Putin suddenly decided to use the name of his opponent and called A. Navalny’s death in the Arctic prison colony a “sad event”. The Russian president didn’t even bother to shed crocodile tears – his naming was a mockery, a show of power.

Now the Russian opposition is left without a bigger than himself Navalny, who has mastered the digital age and combined political activism with smart, funny and eye-catching YouTube videos mocking Russia’s political elite and exposing them as corrupt crooks and thieves. “If you really want to defeat Putin, you have to become an innovator, you have to stop being boring,” Navalny advised the European Parliament last month. But now the innovative A. Navalnas has left.

“He was a genius when it came to smart initiatives, and he was also a populist, a simple person, and he really understood the era of social media,” M. Khodorkovsky noted to Politico.

But even clever memes and gimmicks, such as the Navalny-inspired “Noon Against Putin” protest, will not be able to seriously damage the Russian leader, no matter how much they are emphasized and applauded by Western newspapers. They may boost dissident morale and irritate the Kremlin, but they won’t bring down Putin — or the system of government he created, which according to the latest polls by independent research firm Levada has the support of a majority of Russians (currently at 86 percent).

“To think otherwise is just wishful thinking. The fact that there are no serious mass protests once morest Putin in Russia, let alone his war in Ukraine, speaks volumes. And hard power wins once morest soft power”, observes J. Dettmer.

“If people don’t take up arms, it won’t get us anywhere”

AFP/”Scanpix” photo/Ilja Ponomariovas

Some conclude from this that the Russians must take up arms. Peaceful opposition is a “dead end,” said dissident-turned-former Russian lawmaker Ilya Ponomariov. Ponomaryov now lives in Kyiv and is a spokesman for the Freedom of Russia volunteer legion in Ukraine, which is believed to have regarding 2,000 Russian dissidents and defectors, although some in the Russian opposition believe the number is much smaller. “If people don’t take up arms, it won’t get us anywhere. People will always find excuses to do nothing, but we need to fight,” he told Politico.

He also bemoaned the “Midday Against Putin” protest, which called on opposition Russians to tamper with Yulia Navalnaya’s ballot papers or write her dead husband’s name on them. According to Ponomariov, this only encouraged participation in sham elections and allowed Russian state media to broadcast footage of voters lining up at polling stations, creating a false impression of legitimacy. Rather, he urged Navalny, as well as other opposition figures such as M. Khodorkovsky and Garry Kasparov, “to establish cooperation throughout the opposition and decide what to do and what not to do – that’s what I told her.” However, she did not respond to his appeal.

“I think she will continue to follow her husband’s path and will not cooperate with other representatives of the opposition. When people do not want to cooperate, I think that they are not interested in securing victory, but they set separate roles for themselves and put their personal benefit above the benefit of everyone,” added I. Ponomariov. Meanwhile, M. Khodorkovsky believes that the strategy of violent coups proposed by I. Ponomariov is unrealistic and doomed to failure.

Russia’s defeat in Ukraine is the only realistic goal

No matter how violent or peaceful the Russian opposition is, it seems insignificant, no matter how much some Western commentators talk regarding it in the hope of raising spirits. “Russia’s pro-democracy opposition was essentially exhausted long before 2022. February,” analysts at the Center for European Policy Analysis said in a recent report, “Containing Russia, Protecting Europe.” And while many of these individuals now continue the struggle from abroad and “play an important role in helping to get information to and from Russia, supporting Ukrainian and Russian refugees, defending the interests of political prisoners, as well as organizing largely fruitless acts of resistance on the ground, it is unlikely that any which of these efforts might change the composition or direction of the Russian regime,” they wrote.

What does all this mean for Ukraine and the West? – asks the journalist.

This means that Russia’s defeat in Ukraine is the only realistic goal. This would not only give Ukraine the sovereign right to choose its own destiny, but would also deter Putin from further aggression, which might also save Russia, as it is the only thing that can change the country’s political dynamics. But for such a victory to be achieved, the West must step up, step up arms and military aid, and help Ukraine withstand the imminent Russian offensive, likely to be directed at Kharkiv and Odesa, as well as prepare to attack and try to oust Russia.

“The wish that V. Putin’s days are numbered and that memes will destroy his regime should be put aside. It’s time to get dead serious, Mychailo Podoliak, political adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, told Politico. “Because the time is favorable for Russia, not for Ukraine,” he said. “Because the Russian side is adjusting to a long war; they completely reorganized their country with war in mind. It is an authoritarian country, completely controlled by the vertical of power. The first priority is to defeat Russia,” he said.

“From Putin’s point of view, if Russia loses, a transformation will take place within it. If she wins, she will dominate Europe,” concludes the journalist.