[新頭殼newtalk] Tensions on the border between Russia and Ukraine continue to rise, the world has evacuated overseas Chinese, oil prices have been rising, and inflation pressure is overshadowing. Xie Jinhe, chairman of Caixin Media, analyzed today (13) that the recent Ukraine crisis has exacerbated oil prices soaring, but The price of natural gas fell from 6.31 to 3.875 US dollars, “this time the oil and gas are not synchronized, obviously there is a foreshadowing”.
The Ukrainian crisis is on the rise and the war is imminent. Xie Jinhe said that oil prices have been rising, and now the market has almost reached a consensus on the oil price of 100 US dollars. Although he cannot predict the situation in Ukraine, from the perspective of currency war or economic war, who is The winner of the oil and gas surge? Who will be the loser? That’s the point!
Xie Jinhe said that the oil price rose to its highest point in 2007. That year, the Weekly magazine invited Dr. Max Fabre to give a speech on stage. At that time, the CRB index soared to 479.93, and the oil price soared to $147. Max Fabre was confident It is fully predicted that the oil price will rise to 300 US dollars. Unexpectedly, following the outbreak of the financial tsunami, the oil price did not rush to 300 US dollars, but fell to 32 US dollars. “This is the most volatile change in oil prices.”
In the past two years, the epidemic has spread around the world, and oil prices have fluctuated even more. He pointed out that in March 2020, the epidemic spread to Europe and the United States, the global aviation and cruise industries stopped breathing, the global oil reserves were full, gasoline reached minus 40.32 US dollars, and the global economic crisis continued. Wang Wenyuan, President of Formosa Plastics, ordered that all of Formosa Plastics’ tankers be filled with oil. Formosa Plastics grabbed a lot of low-priced oil. The two years have made great profits. Last year, Formosa Plastics’ Four Treasures created a total of 240.3 billion net profits. Earn more than one share capital.
He mentioned that in the past few years, the reduction of carbon and the pursuit of green energy, ESG has become a consensus, Tesla has risen, and everyone believes that the era of electric vehicles is coming, the energy generated by oil will be gone forever, and the oil price will only fall more and more Low. Bill. Bill Gates even predicted that following 30 years, all oil companies will disappear, including Aramco, Exxon, Chevron, but these oil stocks, which have performed well this year because of the sharp rise in oil prices, are the ones that the world chased together last year. Both ESG and green energy-related commodities fell sharply. Everyone worked hard to pursue green energy, and as a result, they struggled somersaults last year, and maybe there will be a good return this year.
Xie Jinhe emphasized that it is most dangerous when a consensus is formed in the investment market. Products that are viewed as bad by everyone have the opportunity to counterattack. If everyone is optimistic, there will also be reverse killings because the market is too crowded. The recent Ukrainian crisis has exacerbated the surge in oil prices, but the price of natural gas has fallen from 6.31 to 3.875 US dollars.
He believes that at this time, the inflation pressure is overshadowed, and this round of oil price surges will affect the huge fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, the stock market and the bond market. What really affects the world is the economic war of finance and currency.
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