2023-10-20 22:25:53
Crude oil futures prices closed lower on Friday (20th), but rose for the second consecutive week since October 7, when Hamas suddenly attacked Israel and Israel subsequently counterattacked, causing market concerns that the conflict would spread throughout the region and endanger crude oil supply.
Meanwhile, natural gas futures fell for an eighth straight session following U.S. officials reported on Thursday that natural gas supplies increased more than expected last week.
Energy Commodity Prices West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for November delivery fell 62 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $88.75 a barrel, up 1.2% on the week. The futures expire at the close of trading today. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for December delivery fell 29 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $88.08 a barrel, the latest latest WTI crude oilfutures. Delivered in DecemberBrent crude oil (Brent) futures fell 22 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $92.16 a barrel, up 1.4% for the week. Gasoline futures for November delivery rose 0.5% to settle at $2.37 a gallon, up 4.8% for the week. Delivered in NovemberThermal Fuel FuturesPrices fell 0.5% to settle at $3.16 per gallon, down 1.7% for the week. Natural gas futures for November delivery fell 2% to close at US$2.90 per million Btu, a drop of more than 10% this week.market drivers
Brian Swan, senior commodities analyst at Schneider Electric Global Research and Analysis, pointed out that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has so far had little direct impact on actual supply and demand conditions. Nonetheless, the escalating conflict still affects crude oil price fluctuations.
Oil prices rose following a U.S. Navy warship intercepted multiple missiles near Yemen on Thursday. According to the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. military intercepted three missiles and several drones launched by the Houthi armed forces in Yemen, but the original targets of these missiles and drones are not known. (Yemen is backed by Iran)
Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said the shipping market is highly vulnerable to developments in the Middle East.
Investors must consider two different geopolitical scenarios. The first is that the conflict is localized in Israel and has minimal impact on oil prices. The second is that the conflict escalates and spreads to the wider Middle East, affecting shipping activities through the Strait of Hormuz. , causing oil prices to rise.
Analysts said that market expectations that Israel would launch a ground invasion of Gaza pushed up crude oil prices this week.
Barbara Lambrecht, commodities analyst at Commerzbank, said that although the conflicts so far have not changed the supply situation, tensions in the Middle East confirm that crude oil currently has a certain degree of geopolitical risk premium, which is reasonable. As a result, oil prices are likely to remain well supported, especially given the current severe undersupply in the oil market.
She pointed out that compared with the same period in previous years, U.S. crude oil inventories are now nearly 5% lower, which is very different from the situation in February this year when inventories were 10% higher than the 5-year moving average.
In addition, the U.S. Department of Energy stated that it will propose oil purchase requirements to backfill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve every month until at least May 2024. The first request was for delivery of up to 6 million barrels of oil in December and January, with plans to buy oil at $79 a barrel or less. When the United States sells SPR urgently in 2022 due to the situation, the average price per pass will be US$95.
At the same time, according toDow JonesAccording to market data, natural gas ended lower for the eighth consecutive trading day on Friday, the longest single-day decline since October 2, 2019.
Brian Steinkamp, a commodity analyst at Schneider Electric. Global Research and Analysis, predicts that temperatures in parts of the United States will be higher than normal in the coming months, reducing the demand for natural gas as a heating fuel and one of the reasons for the price decline.
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