Mr. At Pisanwanich, Director of International Trade Studies Center University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce said Thailand’s exports in 2023 are expected to expand -0.5%-1.5%, lowest growth in 3 years Representing $ 295,203 million, with an average median of 1 %, valued at $ 290,819 -296,665 million.
The major export markets decreased compared to the previous year, such as the United States down to 0.6% from 14.5%, Japan down to 0.3% from 0.8%, the European Union down to 0.1% from 7.7% and ASEAN down to 1.2%. from 13.1% etc.
Thai exports have 7 key risk factors.is 1. The global economy and trading partners slow down. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects global GDP to grow only 2.7%, lower than 3.2% a year earlier. While global trade this year grew by 1%, less than the previous year’s 3.5%. 2. Russo-Ukrainian WarStill protracted throughout this year, causing global GDP to disappear by 0.4-1% and dragging the value of Thai exports to disappear by 0.7-1.7% or valued at $ 2,011- 5,028 million or 72,396 -181,008 million baht
3. Oil prices are still high at an average of 80-120 dollars per barrel. Because China uses more oil following opening the country. , Uncertain weather affects energy demand in Europe and OPEC cuts production by another 2 million barrels per day. 4. Inflation is still high at 1-3%, but may decrease according to the direction of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). .) and central banks of other countries The baht expected to move at the level 35-36 baht per dollar depreciated from the previous year’s average $35.1 per barrel
5. Prices of raw materials and products will increase by 14%. from war problems 6. The Fed may keep inflation under its 2% target. With an interest rate hike into the range of 5.00-5.25%, it is the highest in 15 years. and 7. Conflicts between China and the United States.Will cause trade retaliatory measures to affect global and Thai industries such as semiconductor industry Phones, electrical appliances, clothes, shoes, seafood, cars, etc.
It must also followThe impact of China’s opening upAs for how it will affect Thai exports? If COVID does not spread in China, it will have a positive effect, increasing the value of exports to the Chinese market by 33,336- 41,652 million baht. But if the COVID epidemic in China And the government is so ineffective in controlling the outbreak that it has to shut down the country once more. may affect the value of Thai exports lost 4,896-24,120 million baht
Including having to followForeign environmental, health and social measures that affect Thai exports in 2023 as well Especially in the case of 1. The European Union will enforce the law on goods free from deforestation. This may affect exports of rubber and palm oil products, cattle and products. and Thai coffee Because the EU has previously stated that such industries are encroaching on forests.
2. The Clean Competition Act (CCA), a US carbon levy that will take effect January 1, 2024, will affect petroleum refined products, fertilizers, petrochemicals, cement, steel. , aluminum, glass, paper and ethanol, etc.
3. EU Cross Border Carbon Adjustment (CBAM) Which will take effect on January 1, 2023, which will affect products in the group of iron, steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizer, electricity, chemicals and plastics, hydrogen, etc.
4. Collection of new plastic packaging taxes in the United States (not set effective date yet), which will affect products in the category of plastic packaging.
