2023-12-23 10:13:22
Generally speaking, throughout 2023, global trade recorded a continued decline, mainly influenced by falling demand in developed nations, underperformance of East Asian economies and a decrease in commodity prices. raw materials. According to UNCTAD’s estimate, these factors have jointly led to a significant contraction in trade in goods. In contrast, trade in services showed growth for most of the year, attributed to its late recovery following the Covid-19 crisis. However, the recovery of the services sectors slowed notably during the second half of the year.
The paper also highlights that the slowdown in trade has been more pronounced for developing countries, with South-South trade underperforming for most of 2023. These trends are attributable not only to the slowdown in regions of the East Asian, but also to a decrease in trade between Asian economies.
As for forecasts for world trade in 2024, they remain uncertain and generally pessimistic. Indeed, although some economic indicators suggest potential improvements, persistent geopolitical tensions, high debt levels and widespread economic fragility are likely to exert negative influences on global trade patterns. Key factors include positive economic growth, but with significant disparities, influencing trade patterns, high interest rate and weakening industrial production, signaling a gloomy outlook, volatility in commodity prices, accentuated by regional conflicts and geopolitical tensions, a lengthening of supply chains, with knock-on effects seen in China-US ties, an increase in subsidies and trade restrictive measures, hampering the growth of international trade, weak demand of container shipping and a growing demand for raw materials, reflecting divergent trends in the transport sectors… This conjunction of challenges highlights the continued uncertainty that hangs over global trade in 2024.
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