2023-05-15 03:31:24
Posted May 15, 2023
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The cost of fuel exceeds the price before the war, even if the price per barrel has fallen.
Fuel prices respond to supply and demand. Thus, the supply is lacking while the demand for fuels has skyrocketed since the reopening.
For the year 2022, the French Union of Petroleum Industries reports an increase in fuel consumption, despite high prices:
Deliveries of road fuels are up by 2.2% in 2022 compared to 2021. Overall, the consumption of energy petroleum products is up by 3.7% compared to 2021.
According to figures from the group, fuel deliveries have been growing at double-digit annual growth rates, every month since August 2021. After a slowdown in the pace in March, they still increased by 4.6% over one year.
In addition, the level of fuel consumption has not even returned to 2019 levels! Gasoline consumption should therefore continue to increase and drive prices up.
The cost of gasoline creates a surprise. It illustrates the contradictions between the leaders’ rhetoric and reality.
Propaganda once morest fossil fuels
Like gasoline, the cost of electricity holds at higher levels than the norm.
Despite a drop since last year, electric current costs around twice as much as before the lockdowns, from 100 euros per MWh today, once morest 50 euros in November 2019.
The country still suffers from a lack of energy.
The prices of fuels, like oil, defy the forecasts of the leaders.
Indeed, the authorities promise a future without oil. Meanwhile, producers are cashing in record profits. According The echoes :
“The American oil and gas giant ExxonMobil announced on Friday that it pumped more in the first quarter and doubled its profits despite the decline in hydrocarbon prices compared to the same period in 2022.
In detail, the group thus generated a net profit of 11.4 billion dollars over the first three months of the year, a record for a first quarter.[…] Chevron, America’s second largest oil company, released its first quarter results on Friday. Chevron’s net profit thus increased by 5% to reach 6.57 billion dollars (5.98 billion euros) […] Chevron ended the quarter with $15.8 billion in cash, down 12% from a year ago, but regarding $10 billion more than it needs to run the business…”
For years, newspapers and elected officials have been announcing the end of oil.
However, as shown the graph belowof the international energy agency, global demand for fossil fuels is growing steadily. The growth in the number of wind turbines or solar panels in the last decade has had no effect.
The International Energy Agency projects a peak in demand before 2025, then a decline in demand year on year.
The peak is unlikely to happen. The growth in demand for energy in the world will continue well; just like the demand for fuels in France.
Renewables certainly attract a lot of capital. The newspapers enthusiastically reported record investment last year. Investments related to the reduction of carbon emissions, including renewables, have reached 1.1 trillion dollars, or as much as fossil fuels.
The same year, a report on the production of energy via wind turbines however created doubts regarding the interest of the investments – even if the press spoke little regarding it. The “load factor” of wind turbines in 2022 reached only 21.6%. So they didn’t produce nearly 80% of their theoretical capacity – because there was no wind.
In comparison, the median “load factor” of nuclear power plants was 85.6% in 2021.
Despite the rising demand for fuels, and the weaknesses of renewables, the press highlights the propaganda of the leaders once morest fossil fuels.
A stand of Bloomberg explain :
« [L’Opep et l’Agence internationale de l’énergie] increasingly agree that oil production will decline over the next decade. […] Indeed, the market share of electric vehicles has increased from 2% in 2019 to 20% in 2023, according to the International Energy Agency, and will reach 60% in the American, European and Chinese markets before 2030.
This trend has a lot of impact. The life of a conventional oil field is 15-20 years, while the average life of a car is 10-15 years. Thus, a larger market share for electric cars is likely to reduce demand for oil before new fields reach the end of their life.
With gasoline demand already waning, transportation fuels nearing a peak, and more attractive prices for Teslas, it’s impossible to avoid the conclusion that oil’s boom years are already over. »
once morest natural gas
A recent conversation of Reporterre with a member of GreenpeaceEdina Ifticene, illustrates how propaganda works.
The ecologist deplores the use of natural gas, accusing the sector of taking advantage of the “general panic” of the war “to say that it had the solution. »
The ecologist continues:
“By playing on fears, adults traders that are Shell or TotalEnergies, but also their lobbies, with the European gas network Entsog, therefore very quickly pushed Europe to much more supply and infrastructure in this area.
In a haphazard fashion, the European Commission and the various governments began to invest massively in long-term contracts. In France, Engie, for example, signed two fifteen-year contracts with the Americans in 2022 and terminal construction and extension projects have multiplied.
For a short-term crisis, supposed to last only a few winters, governments are thus committing to infrastructures that will not see the light of day before 2026… at best.
However, getting such an infrastructure out of the ground costs an average of one billion euros. This is so much money that must be made profitable over the years. »
The speech follows the lines of the International Energy Agency. The world is approaching a peak in demand. Despite the rising price signal, people don’t need more energies.
Investments in fossil fuels do not make sense.
The ecologist also asserts that natural gas “is neither a green energy nor a tool for decarbonization. »
It “is disastrous for the climate because it requires liquefaction and gasification plants, but also because its transport generates CO emissions2 and leaks. In other words, all things considered, it is much more emitting than conventional gas transported by pipeline. »
None fact-checker will not run the risk of confronting single thought.
But natural gas produces regarding half as much carbon as coal, for example.
However, coal – due to the failures of renewables – reached a record demand last year (as shown in the table above).
In addition, the gas seems to significantly improve air quality.
The graphic below shows the use of gas in China, with the index of air quality in major cities. During the years 2015 to 2018, the use of gas (green curve) climbs, and the pollution peaks (blue band) seem to decrease in amplitude.
Oil and gas, on the other hand, do not require the intervention of leaders or the programs of environmentalists, which leads to hostility from the press.
As fuel prices at the pump show, predictions of doom for the oil industry run counter to reality.
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