The truth about grain harvests in China: records despite drought and Covid?

The truth about grain harvests in China: records despite drought and Covid?

Olaf Zinke*

In 2022, China experienced its hottest summer since 1961. Persistently high temperatures and a drought with many rivers running dry have led to a lack of water and are expected to have had a significant impact on the growth of maize, rice and other summer crops. In Europe, similar weather conditions resulted in a disastrous maize harvest.

China has had an extreme grain year. Despite this, the Middle Kingdom announces a record harvest. Is it true ? This was achieved – according to official data – thanks to high purchase prices charged by the state and massive subsidies. However, this is not very likely, considering the consequences of the heat on the corn harvest in Europe.

According to official Chinese data, 23 out of 31 provinces reported an increase in grain production. The wheat harvest is estimated at nearly 138 million tonnes.

Despite extreme summer heat and the massive consequences of Covid-19, China announces another year of record grain harvest. In any case, this is what the official data of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). According to these data, the country’s cereal production in 2022 reached a new record of 569 million tonnes (excluding oilseeds). Harvests of wheat, corn and soybeans have reached record levels.

The wheat harvest is estimated to nearly 138 million tons and that of maize to 277 million tons. Only the rice harvest fell by 2% to 146 million tons. Mr. Wang Guirong, director of the NBSsaid that the annual grain production had remained above the reference value set by the central government for the eighth consecutive year. country food security. In this context, in 2022 China experienced its hottest summer since 1961.

Continued high temperatures and extreme drought, with many rivers and lakes drying up, have resulted in water scarcity and likely had a significant impact on the growth of maize, rice and other important summer crops. , which nevertheless constitute the lion’s share of Chinese grain production. In Europe, similar weather conditions led to a catastrophic corn harvest.

Added to this were numerous logistical problems, due to the interminable confinements, as well as a cruel lack of inputs and labour. In order to stimulate production, the central government has greatly increased the minimum purchase price of wheat and rice and maintained further grain subsidies in 2022.

Authorities have somehow inundated farmers with a 40 billion yuan ($5.7 billion) financial windfall to prevent them from giving up growing rice, wheat and other less lucrative crops, said Mr. Gou Tianlai, professor at Beijing Agricultural University, to the Chinese newspaper Global Times.

The Chinese black box: huge stocks

Continued high temperatures and a drought that dried up many waterways resulted in water scarcity and should have had a huge impact on the growth of maize, rice and other summer crops. The maize harvest was estimated at a record level of 277 million tonnes.

Against this backdrop, China’s grain area reached 118.33 million hectares in 2022, an increase of 0.6 percent from the previous year. The area under soy has even exceeded 10 million hectares, the highest for more than 60 years. Many foreign analysts and observers, however, do not believe that the extreme weather conditions ultimately resulted in a record harvest.

According to official Chinese data, 23 out of 31 provinces recorded an increase in grain production, while the country’s grain yield per unit area fell slightly year-on-year, as data from China showed. NBS « China’s grain harvest has contributed positively to global food market stabilization and food security », a poursuivi M. Wang Guirong.

When it comes to imports, that shouldn’t be entirely true. This year, China still imports 9.5 million tonnes of wheat – about as much as last year – and still 18 million tonnes of corn, 4 million tonnes less than last year. last. Rice is expected to be imported at 5.2 million tonnes, similar to last year’s volume.

A look at the stocks, however, shows how much China is banking on security of supply. Thus, according to the estimates of theUSDA, nobody knows exactly, the Middle Kingdom keeps in its warehouses 124 million tons of wheat, almost an entire crop or about 46% of the world’s wheat stocks. For corn, theUSDA estimates that at the end of the current season, 208 million tonnes are stored in Chinese silos, or 65% of world stocks. Not only do these huge quantities cost colossal sums, but they also distort the picture of the real world supply situation.

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* Olaf Zinke works for AGRICULTURAL TODAY as a cross-media editor for operations and markets. He has been analyzing national and international agricultural and commodity markets for three decades and has worked in this capacity for various institutions.

Source : The truth about China’s grain harvest – records despite drought & Corona? | agrarheute.com