The True Profitability of Bitcoin: Analyzing Historical Performance and HODLing Trends

2023-12-30 16:16:23

It also appeared on several social platform accounts that infographic, according to which bitcoin has been in profit for 94% of its history. The graph shows the performance of bitcoin from 2010 and it seems that only in 2021, in a shorter period, was the largest cryptocurrency not in profit.

Well, let’s add that the graph looks at the current exchange rate and the price of BTC measured in the given period. So the short period in 2021 when bitcoin was not in profit according to the graph is the period when the exchange rate was higher than the current value of around $42,000. Conversely, the graph shows that since 2010 the exchange rate has only been higher than it is now 6% of the time.

Every BTC chart should be interpreted properly

To say what we wrote in the first sentence, that Bitcoin was in profit for 94% of its history, is a mistake. It is necessary to investigate who bought the bitcoin at what price. Whoever bought it for $50,000 that year is still not making a profit. The chart may be good to point out that hoddling is not a bad thing, as those who bought BTC in the past and never sold it are probably in profit. Given that 94% of days in the past period the exchange rate was lower than it is now. So instead of the chart above, let’s look at the graphic showing the percentage of bitcoins currently in profit. This is calculated from the market value valid at the time of the last transaction. This shows that about 80% of the BTC currently held is in profit.

Holding bitcoin is not only easier, but also risk-free than trading it. Even if we didn’t decide to buy during a very strong bull market. Even during the crypto winter of 2023, the percentage of bitcoins held in profit did not fall below 60%. On the other hand, trading has significant risks, since the goal there is to sell in the shorter term after the purchase. And for example, those who bought coins during the bull market of 2013 or 2017 had to wait up to 2-3 years to make a profit. A graph of the so-called HODL waves shows that 16% of the BTC currently in existence has not been used in the last 10 years and more than 30% has not been moved in the last five years. Only 30% of all BTC has moved in the last 12 months. So it can be said that the vast majority of Bitcoin is owned by hodlers and not traders.

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