“E.T.” it records in detail a series of particularly important highlights and multidimensional ramifications resulting from these complex and unprecedented attacks.
- The use of pagers and walkie-talkies in coordinated bombings in Lebanon has implications for scrutinizing the security of global supply chains and their susceptibility to breaches by governments or other actors. The use of thousands of electronic devices in the unprecedented attacks is widely believed to have been orchestrated by Israel as part of an operation aimed at disabling Hezbollah. There are also implications for the spectrum of everyday communication equipment in the future.
Tech companies are likely to see the attacks as a strong reminder of the importance of securing their supply chains, while the general public’s trust in technology may also suffer. Any company that manufactures or sells physical devices will be concerned about the integrity of its supply chain. They are likely to consider adding additional safeguards and verifications so that they can detect and prevent instances of similar sabotage.
While Israel has been involved in assassinations using falsified communications devices, including the 1996 killing of Hamas bomber/engineer Yahya Ayyash via an explosives-rigged cellphone, the scale of the attacks, involving thousands of simultaneous blasts, was unprecedented. At least 32 people were killed and more than 3,100 injured in the blasts on Tuesday and Wednesday, including active members of Hezbollah as well as civilians.
Somehow thousands of devices were turned into weapons without anyone noticing. How widespread are these explosive devices? How did the explosives get into the devices or device supply chains? This attack raises terrifying new questions. Mariarosario Tandeo, a professor of digital ethics and defense technologies at the University of Oxford, said the attacks set a worrying precedent as they involved disruption of the supply chain, not for a single act of sabotage, but for a distributed, highly effective attack. This scenario has been examined by experts but not by government actors.
- Hezbollah losing its ability to communicate is a win for Israel, but a loss for global intelligence.
The multidimensional destruction of Hezbollah’s communications equipment is helping intelligence communities around the world map the relationships and reach of a US-EU designated terrorist organization with a global reach.
Hezbollah has essentially lost the ability, temporarily at least, to mobilize large numbers of fighters. Terrified and inaccessible fighters will stay home or be forced to meet in groups to coordinate, creating new targeting opportunities for drone attacks. Favorable conditions are being created for possible operations by Israeli forces designed to push Hezbollah further from Israel’s northern borders.
- Hezbollah faces a psychological blow as it tries to avoid inciting war.
The planning and execution of the operation certainly took months of effort on the part of Israel. There is a real fact that could increase tensions further and the operation could definitely be a prelude to war.
But for Israel it may also be an attempt to convince Hezbollah that an invasion is imminent in the hope that the organization will eventually move ten kilometers back from the border. This would allow tens of thousands of northern Israeli families to return to their homes after nearly a year of absence due to the threat posed by the Shiite group, which acts as a proxy for Tehran.
At the same time, this blow hit not only the leaders of Hezbollah, but the very organization of the terrorist organization. As a result, it would not be surprising to see many Hezbollah members clamoring to respond.
Hezbollah leaders are desperate not to be seen as instigating a war with Israel. The memories of the devastating war of 2006 are still strong and the g.g. of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, and his deputy, Naim Kassim, will not want to give justification for shifting global responsibility from Israel to Hezbollah itself, because it is seen as hitting Israel in a different way than it has for the last eleven months. This creates a conundrum for the organization at a time when its internal credibility is about to decline, given the psychological impact, which is a reminder that Israel can strike anytime, anywhere.
- The operation was a master class in covert action, both from a kinetic and supply chain perspective. In fact, this is a particularly impressive business of kinetic intelligence. Its scale and scope were simply staggering. It was not a beheading action against senior figures, but more of an incapacitating action, which brought Hezbollah to its knees, injuring hundreds of its members with just two strikes.
Israel has now achieved complete intelligence dominance over Hezbollah, from the July strike on Fouad Shukr, to the preemptive strikes that effectively averted a wider war in August, and now to this bold operation. A particularly significant development for the Israeli intelligence services, as they have certainly recovered from the October 7 disaster. No one will trust Hezbollah’s electronic systems anymore.
The supply chain side of the operation appears to be quite unusual, as Israel took advantage of Hezbollah’s move toward pagers that was ironically designed to prevent Israeli intelligence gathering. Israel apparently saw this unique opportunity in Hezbollah’s need to import pagers.
In the undersigned’s view, this operation may have been designed to send a message that would probably signal the beginning of an Israeli ground drive into Lebanon. On the contrary, this may be part of the Israeli strategy of “escalation for de-escalation”. In other words, by delivering a devastatingly stern and brutal warning to Hezbollah that it has compromised its security, Israel is signaling to the organization that a wider war would be disastrous.
Are buzzers legitimate military targets or not?
The explosions of wireless communication devices across Lebanon this week also constitute a violation of the laws of war. This includes potentially violating prohibitions on indiscriminate and disproportionate attacks, as the explosions have killed dozens of people and injured thousands more. “You should not trap items that civilians are likely to pick up and use, or items generally associated with normal civilian use,” said Sarah Leah Whitson, a lawyer and director of the US-based rights group Democracy.
We also have no idea who had the pagers or whether or not they are legitimate military targets. Pagers, walkie-talkies, cellphones and other devices apparently linked to Hezbollah members exploded in two waves of attacks across Lebanon on Tuesday and Wednesday. While many details of the explosions remain unclear, they wreaked havoc across Lebanon. At least 32 people were killed, including two children and a doctor, and more than 3,000 others were injured. The series of simultaneous explosions also caused scenes of panic in the country of more than five million people, with medical centers dealing with a flood of wounded and residents running into the streets, frightened and confused.
While Israel has not confirmed its involvement in the attacks, it typically maintains that its military operations are justified as part of the fight against terrorism. Supporters of Israel celebrated the blasts in Lebanon, describing them as “accurate,” but the blasts took place around civilians, in residential buildings, grocery stores and shops, among others. International humanitarian law (IHL), a body of rules set out in global treaties aimed at protecting civilians during armed conflict, prohibits attacks that are “not directed at a specific military objective”. For this reason and beyond operational individual issues, international issues also come to the fore.
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