Autor. SpaceX
“The progress that SpaceX showed between the first and second flights allows us to believe that the third flight will lead to the correct introduction of the second stage into the space trajectory […] The effects of previous launches are sometimes wrongly perceived as failures, but this is how the company collects rich feedback. They will learn the absolute limits,” said Jakub Hajkuś, an expert in space technologies and the host of the To some space! channel, in an interview for Space24.pl.
Ahead of us is the third test flight of the most powerful rocket ever created by man. We are talking about the Starship/Super Heavy launch system, which should make another launch attempt today at 1 p.m. Polish time. Space fans and many interested people from around the world have great expectations for the upcoming test. Will Starship reach Earth orbit this time? What are the assumptions of the third trial? About everything Jakub Hajkuś from the channel “It’s some kind of cosmos” told us!” We cordially invite you to read the material below.
Mateusz Mitkow, managing editor of Space24.pl: The third test flight of the Starship/Super Heavy launch system is ahead of us. The last attempts were very exciting, but not entirely successful. How do you assess the starts we have seen so far? In your opinion, is there significant progress that SpaceX can be satisfied with at this stage of project development?
Jakub Hajkuś: Definitely yes, SpaceX is making great progress on the Starship project. They were especially noticeable between the first and second flights, but the whole enterprise is developing in an impressive way. The crashed prototypes are part of SpaceX’s philosophy: build big and test often. The effects of previous launches are sometimes wrongly perceived as failures, but this is how the company collects rich feedback. They learn the absolute limits of the structures they create and quickly verify their assumptions.
Autor. Elon Musk/X
The third attempt will be special for several reasons, including the planned demonstration of fuel transfer in orbit. Additionally, the landing place of the upper section has been changed. Why was this decision made and what do you think poses the greatest risk of failure for the upcoming flight?
Another flight without reaching orbit would be a big blow to Elon Musk’s company, especially since Starship is extremely important for the Artemis program, which assumes the return of man to the Moon. What consequences may occur if this test attempt does not go as SpaceX wants?
The third test is certainly accompanied by great expectations. There is a good chance that the rocket’s second stage will be successfully placed on the planned suborbital trajectory. In this case, even failure to perform other components of the test will not be perceived as a failure. In case the test fails to achieve even this, the company is ready for another flight relatively soon. At this stage, the impact on the Artemis program would not be significant. For SpaceX, the main threats are those events that would seriously slow down the work. These include critical damage to the launch tower site or disagreements with the FAA that resulted in approval for test flights.
Not only NASA, but also a significant part of the space industry is waiting for Starship to be put into regular use. How much can it revolutionize the market?
The orbital payload launch market is characterized by high inertia in terms of customer response. The high lifting capacity and enlarged dimensions offered by Starship may not find recipients immediately. A good analogy would be the appearance of the Falcon Heavy. It took several years to reach the right customer after the first flights. In this case, the US military. Starship arouses great interest and the media informs about further ideas for its use.
Examples include transporting large space telescopes or new space stations. The implementation of Starship will verify the feasibility of these ideas, because in the end there always needs to be a client with a budget. SpaceX is aware of this state of affairs and has already taken care of initial orders for Starship. The rocket is currently scaled to transport next-generation Starlink satellites and as a lunar lander for NASA. This should give the company time to look for more customers.
The American military is also monitoring the development of the missile. There is a lot of talk about using Starship for the “Rocket Cargo” project, which aims to develop the ability to quickly send cargo anywhere in the world. Do you think this concept is actually feasible and Starship is the right system for it?
The US military has the highest budget in the world. In addition to maintaining and developing the armed forces, funds are invested in various projects. It’s about building capabilities and advantages in a wide range of activities. However, it seems to me that the transportation of military cargo by Starship within the Earth is treated rather experimentally.
Autor. SpaceX
Perhaps the goal is to just look into this method, just to be on the safe side. If the feasibility study turns out to be promising, it is possible that the military would be willing to conduct test transports with SpaceX, but without any hope of actually implementing the solution. Still, I wouldn’t mind if my words aged like The Engineering Magazine’s 1909 article. It did not predict the future of the Wright brothers’ invention.
Elon Musk’s biggest dream is probably a manned landing on Mars, for which Starship will be necessary. How much time do you think SpaceX needs to complete such a project?
At the moment, it is impossible to determine even the approximate date of the manned Mars mission. Any assurances from Elon Musk should be treated with caution. This is an element of spreading a certain vision of the future and company PR. At the same time, I believe that today Starship is the only project that can realistically lead to a manned mission to the Red Planet. But only in partnership with a government institution such as NASA. The question is not “When?” but “Under what conditions?”
SpaceX may do the same as in the case of its Dragon 2 capsule. There, it was first built according to the dictates and needs of NASA. Later, Dragon began to be used for private missions. The Martian Starship should be a copy of this approach. SpaceX will first deliver a version of the Artemis program’s crewed lunar lander to NASA. The next step will be to gain experience and launch similar private missions. This will provide the basis for designing a Mars mission.
Thank you for the conversation
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