2024-01-07 04:42:00
“A big reset”. It is in this state of mind that Emmanuel Macron went on vacation before Christmas. It was with the same intention that he returned to the Élysée. In this complicated five-year term, the Head of State has decided to make a major shake-up to get back on track. Unless there is a last minute change, this should involve the departure of Élisabeth Borne de Matignon, the appointment of a new Prime Minister and a large reshuffle of the government. The major maneuvers should begin on Monday at the earliest. Within the majority, everyone holds their breath.
In recent weeks, the president has regularly shown himself unhappy. “Our problem is not know-how but making it known,” he repeated. In December, he was angered by the conclusion of the immigration bill, fracturing the majority and provoking a rebellion within the executive. Since the middle of autumn, several of his relatives have pleaded with him in favor of a governmental big bang in order to face in an offensive posture a year, which between the Europeans in June and the Summer Olympics would be hinge for him.
Emmanuel Macron joined in. “The president wants a casting in line with his wishes of 1 is January: its desire for civic and industrial rearmament and its determination to take into account the political fight to be waged during the European elections”, they say at the Élysée. “The criterion will be effectiveness, assures a minister. The head of state wants strong people who are quick on the ball. » On Wednesday, Emmanuel Macron had lunch with Élisabeth Borne. She came out a little lost. The president was not clear on what fate he intended to reserve for him. In the days that follow, the Prime Minister will understand what is going on. At the Élysée, the head of state increases consultations. If the tenant of Matignon gets down to her daily task, she does not ask her ministers about their desire to change positions or not…
Confidential man and historic Macronist
To replace it, two of them hold the rope. The first is Sébastien Lecornu. Coming from the Republicans, the Minister of the Armed Forces did not know the Head of State when he entered the government in June 2017 (at the State Secretariat for Ecology). He is now one of her trusted men. Brigitte Macron, who particularly esteems him, often emphasizes his righteousness. The second is Julien Denormandie. He is a historic Macronist. He particularly distinguished himself at the Ministry of Agriculture between 2020 and 2022, where he was particularly appreciated by the LRs. In 2022, on the eve of the presidential competition, the two men had already been in competition. They were expected to be Emmanuel Macron’s campaign director. Ultimately, the position was never filled.
While the Head of State has until now always had Prime Ministers older than him, both are younger: Sébastien Lecornu is 37 years old and Julien Denormandie, 43. They have not the same profile. The former Minister of Agriculture was never elected; which can be a real handicap, when in the Assembly we have to deal with a relative majority. “He’s an engineer and not an enarque, specifies one of its defenders. He doesn’t have the soul of a collaborator. He may have the head and voice of an altar boy, but he also knows how to be tenacious. » A politician through and through, the Minister of the Armed Forces has taken on local mandates. If this can be a real advantage, Sébastien Lecornu however has another problem: within Macronie, François Bayrou has no respect for him. The boss of MoDem judges that he is first and foremost a courtier. He is thus deeply hostile to his promotion to Matignon. He would have difficulty accepting it. The centrist, on the other hand, sees Julien Denormandie with a more benevolent eye. The latter is also defended by Richard Ferrand. Tested by the Head of State and some relatives on his own desire to be named Rue de Varenne, the former President of the National Assembly told them that he did not wish to return to politics in the near future.
Serial presidential consultations
Should we add a name to this list? For many in the majority, Bruno Le Maire would have been the most rational choice. The Minister of Finance has rather good relations with the LR deputies, his former party, while in the Assembly it is a key point. Since mid-November, he has openly campaigned for Matignon, calling in particular for a new round of reforms. But Bruno Le Maire does not correspond to the profile sought by Emmanuel Macron: Rue de Varenne, he would take up too much space and light. Friday, the tenant of the Élysée received the Minister of Finance face to face. If the first means that a new page is turning, can the second still stay at Bercy, where he has been for more than six and a half years, as he wishes? Together, they did not mention the European elections, while the majority believe that Bruno Le Maire would be the best head of the list. The head of state also saw Gabriel Attal. Wouldn’t the one who, in just six months, managed to establish himself in National Education, guarantee a real impact if he were promoted to Prime Minister?
Other members of the government were entitled to an interview with Emmanuel Macron. Thursday, this was the case for Gérald Darmanin. The Minister of the Interior is no longer, as in July, in the race for Matignon. But having been in office for three and a half years now at Place Beauvau, wouldn’t it be time to change portfolio? “What do I say if the president offers me the Quai d’Orsay? » he recently asked several of his interlocutors. Among them, Édouard Philippe replied that it would be a distancing for him but not an erasure.
The fate of the left wing in suspense
Could Gérald Darmanin also be offered a major social ministry? Since the resignation of Aurélien Rousseau in disagreement with the immigration law, there is no longer a Minister of Health. The Labor portfolio is also on hold. On January 17, the judgment of the Paris criminal court will be rendered in the context of the trial of Olivier Dussopt, the current holder, for “favoritism” in a public procurement case when he was mayor of Privas. Thursday, Emmanuel Macron, who has a lot of tenderness for this ex-socialist, invited him to the Élysée. Catherine Colonna was also entitled to a meeting with the Head of State: in recent months, the Minister of Foreign Affairs has been the subject of strong criticism from the presidential entourage. Roland Lescure also came to rue du Faubourg-Saint-Honoré: the Minister Delegate for Industry had been one of those who, from the left wing of the majority, had expressed their discomfort during the adoption of the text on immigration. In the coming reorganization, the fate that will be reserved for them – and particularly for Clément Beaune, Minister for Transport – will be scrutinized.
In this sequence of consultations, Emmanuel Macron again received the three bosses of the majority parties: Stéphane Séjourné, François Bayrou and Édouard Philippe. Privately, the leader of Horizons believes that maintaining Élisabeth Borne remains the best solution and that the question of changing Prime Minister should only be opened after the European elections. But is it still relevant?
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