Hello, it’s lunchtime in Paris. The far-right candidate Eric Zemmour visits a former nuclear power plant in Fessenheim (Alsace, east). It shut down in 2020 following a commitment made by Socialist François Hollande during the 2012 presidential campaign. The former polemicist is a strong advocate for nuclear.
What happened yesterday ? Emmanuel Macron started a two days visit in the north of France. He began it by paying tribute to the victims of a firedamp explosion in 1974.
Why does it matter ? By going to a former stronghold of the left-wing and praising “the Social Republic”, the incumbent and likely candidate sent signals to the left-wing voters, who might have no candidate to support in the second round of the presidential election.
It was in the air, and a pundit put a name on it. “The projects, the proposals, they don’t stick. It’s a Teflon campaign”, said Monday Brice Teinturier, the head of Ipsos, a well-known polling institute, in a radio interview (disclaimer: Le Monde will publish in the weeks to come several waves of Ipsos surveys). “We have the impression that nothing sticks to the French people, that there is no strong or structuring element (in the platforms, editor’s note) and in the personalities either”, he went on. “When we look at how the French view the candidates, it is relatively mediocre”, added Brice Teinturier mercilessly. He won’t be accused of overselling this presidential campaign.
Wednesday helped explain why the race got bogged down in such a metaphoric quagmire. The right-wing and far-right candidates were debating crime with a right-wing police union. They all promised to be tougher on crime than you can imagine and heavily displayed their love of the police. A boring routine. At the same time, the left-wing candidates engaged in a similar exercise on public housing issues. They were grilled by the Abbé Pierre Foundation, a well-known NGO, and promised, hand over heart, to improve the insulation of those buildings, better regulate rents, and build thousands of housing units for low incomes if they were elected, something also highly anticipated. It was only painful for Christiane Taubira (center-left), who had come unprepared.
To ensure perfect symmetry, leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, accused by the police union of hating law enforcement officers, was not invited to their debate. Nor were the two far-right candidates invited by the Abbé Pierre foundation because they want to limit social housing to French people only. The conservative Valérie Pécresse (Les Républicains) preferred to pay tribute to the union rather than the foundation. She sent an aide to represent her. Emmanuel Macron made the opposite choice. While he chose to send the interior minister to the police union debate, he spoke online with the foundation to beat his chest and acknowledge that he didn’t go “far enough.”
Many factors can explain the Teflon effect. First, the omicron wave is only starting to recede. Hospitals are still overwhelmed with patients, and the main restrictions on daily life won’t ease before mid-February. Second, Emmanuel Macron is still exploiting the benefit of a frontline presidency with Covid and Ukraine on his plate. He is in no rush in entering trench warfare. It’s much more rewarding to talk on the phone to the President of the United States or go to Moscow to try to negotiate with the Russian president.
Third, following Brice Teinturier assessment of the candidates’ image, it’s hard to find what Barack Obama called “the new car smell” voters want. Two main candidates are running for the third and probably last time, Marine Le Pen (far-right) and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Christiane Taubira turned 70 yesterday. Green candidate Yannick Jadot and Socialist Anne Hidalgo are running for president for the first time but they are clearly struggling. Eric Zemmour and Valérie Pécresse are newcomers too, but the first one scares voters (only 8% of the people wish he wins according to a Kantar poll published by Le Monde in January) and the second puts them to sleep.
Emmanuel Macron might be the spark that ignites the campaign, but as an incumbent running for reelection, it will be hard for him to promise to do what he was unable to achieve in five years. A blitzkrieg may start soon, but nobody knows when, where, and whether French citizens will be watching.
Number of the day
43 %
According to a study published by the French think-tank Institut Montaigne, a relative majority of young voters or potential voters feel disaffiliated. It’s almost twice the number of their parents. 43 % of the young people surveyed said their ideas are not precise enough to position themselves on a left-right scale. 55 % of them cannot indicate a partisan preference, either because they don’t know enough regarding the parties (36 %) or because none of them corresponds to their choice (19 %). This is true for all political parties, even for the Green party, Europe Ecologie-Les Verts (EELV). Although the environment is a major concern for this category of the population, only 11 % declare that they feel close to this party.
Quote of the day
“You are on the front line of a battle of civilizations”
The far-right candidate Eric Zemmour reiterated Wednesday his vision of a country in the grip of a civil war in front of right-wing unionized police officers. “You are on the front line of a battle of civilizations”, he said. “Facing you are not just delinquents, but another civilization with which we cannot peacefully co-exist (…). Every day delinquents and jihadists are the same. Same origins, same backgrounds, same neighborhoods. Some wage jihad, others wage the jihad of everyday life”, he added.
Countdown
66 Days until the presidential election’s first round
80 Days until the presidential election’s second round
Thanks for reading, see you tomorrow