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And if Ukraine loses support the United States and Russia?

Ukraine needs to resist the support of the United States and the European Union. Although the military contribution is not great, it does have moral importance that democratic powers support the Ukrainian struggle once morest Russia. And it is also key that economic sanctions once morest Putin are maintained. But there is the not-so-distant possibility that the United States and Europe will give in to Russia.

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Fear of not being able to turn on the heating

The foreseeable Russian gas cuts have already caused the European Union to approve measures that restrict the use of energy in industry and private consumption. The fear of not being able to turn on the heating can greatly affect the mood of European public opinion.

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Economic crisis, discontent… and the extreme right ruling in Italy

Energy shortages can cause industrial problems and war generates runaway inflation. Popular discontent is served and, in addition, the polls suggest that Giorgia Meloni (in the image), from the far-right Brothers of Italy formation, can win the elections. That would mean a radical political shift in one of the countries that exercises great leadership in the European Union.

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A Prime Minister once morest Putin but… really?

As a Politico article (signed by Hanna Roberts and Giorgio Leali) summarized, Giorgia Meloni decided to exhibit a forceful position once morest Putin and in favor of Ukraine to gain respectability before the electorate. However, Putin is a leader whom the far-right adores (anti-LGTBI, strong-arm supporter,,,) and if Meloni governed, would she not be willing to force the European Union to seek an agreed peace even if that meant a defeat for Ukraine?

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Berlusconi and Putin, old friends

In addition, it is almost certain that Giorgia Meloni will need an agreement with Berlusconi, an old friend of Putin, and with Salvini, whose love-hate position towards the Russian leader depends on how the wind blows, in order to come to power.

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Contacts between the Kremlin and Salvini’s people

In the Italian newspaper La Stampa they have even published that an official from the Russian Embassy in Rome met with a man from Matteo Salvini (leader of the Northern League -right-wing and populist formation-) to inquire regarding the fall of Mario’s government Draghi. Finally Draghi, a convinced anti-Putinist, had to resign as Prime Minister.

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Trump in the White House by 2024

Another variable (more in the medium term, but who knows how long the war will last?) might be Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential elections.

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Trump sympathizes with Putin and, above all, promotes isolationism

The good harmony between Trump and Putin goes back a long way, although now (for obvious reasons) the American tycoon is discreet regarding it. In addition, Trump is a supporter, in foreign policy, of isolationism. Let the world get by and America go regarding its own business.

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But can Trump return to power?

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stop the war

If extremists come to power it will be, among other things, because people are scared and tired of war. Stopping the conflict at all costs (even if it means dropping Zelensky) may be an idea that will catch on with public opinion in Europe and the United States.

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the winter general

Once once more in history, Russia can benefit from the so-called “general winter” that helped it defeat Napoleon or the Nazis. A Europe with energy scarcity and fear is a breeding ground for “surrenderism”.

Imagen: Viktor Brystov / Unsplash

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a long war

Putin is well aware of all these factors of attrition and is therefore ready for a long war. And, at the moment, it does not seem that this conflict is costing the Russian president internal support.

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The world is not only Europe and the United States

And add another factor: the world is bigger than the United States and the European Union. And Putin maintains cordial, friendly or, at least, correct enough relations with a good number of countries that continue to maintain strong commercial ties.

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Lula and the war in Ukraine

It was surprising in Europe and the United States that a political leader like Lula accused Zelensky of being “just as guilty” of the war as Putin in an interview with TIME. He also blamed NATO for the conflict. But his words are shared by many political leaders and ordinary citizens in Latin America and elsewhere.

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a foreign war

In Latin America, many parts of Asia (with powers like India and China at the forefront) and African countries, the war in Ukraine is a distant affair and is not considered a reason to break relations with Russia.

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no more heroes

It is not clear that European or American citizens are willing to pay the price of a conflict like the one in Ukraine. Heroism and sacrifice, when the invaded country is not your own, is somewhat complicated. Zelensky may be the last hero of the resistance.

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Surrender… or negotiation

So it is very likely that the idea of ​​a negotiation with Russia at the expense of the territorial integrity of Ukraine will be imposed. Would it be a surrender? That will be a complex question to debate.

ALSO: How to Survive a Nuclear Attack

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17/17 SLIDES