2023-05-07 06:16:39
With the start of talks between the two sides of the Sudanese conflict in Saudi Arabia, Khartoum shook once more with clashes and the sound of bullets. What increases anxiety is the continuation of the conflict, which threatens the fall of the state, and exports its crises to neighboring countries.
Clashes renewed between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces in the Riyadh region and Airport Street in central Khartoum, where the roar of warplanes and explosions were heard, which terrified the population.
Two Sudanese experts monitor the devastating effects that they tell Sky News Arabia will result from the prolonged battles, especially the fading of the state and the transfer of economic crises, terrorism, and ethnic and tribal conflicts to neighboring countries.
The state is in danger
The prolongation of the battles, their expansion, and the entry of other parties into them may lead to the disappearance of the state in Sudan.
At this point, the Sudanese military expert, Major General Amin Ismail Majzoub, draws attention to the great destruction that affected the infrastructure, such as water and electricity, and the disruption of education and hospitals, although the battles did not pass for more than 3 weeks.
On top of that, the Sudanese lose lives daily, and others are injured, as the death toll has reached 700, along with 5,000 wounded, according to Majzoub.
Sudan has been suffering economically for years, and the war came to increase the possibility of a “complete economic collapse of the country,” warns the Sudanese expert.
A dangerous curve and a new reality
As described by the Sudanese strategic expert, Babiker Youssef, the war has taken a “dangerous turn that imposes a new reality in the aspects of life in Sudan,” which has a high proportion of the poor.
Youssef expects that, in addition to the ongoing destruction of the infrastructure, if the conflict is prolonged, chaos will erupt in which organized crime will live, wiping out the rest of the state’s institutions and wealth.
He gives examples of this chaos that has begun to emerge, with the crimes of violating banks, striking facilities, occupying hospitals, and looting factories and public stores, including food ones.
60 out of 88 hospitals in Khartoum are out of service, and the United Nations has sounded the alarm regarding the possibility of 19 million people suffering from hunger and malnutrition in the coming months.
What regarding neighboring countries?
The conflict caused 335,000 people to flee their places, 115,000 of whom sought refuge in neighboring countries.
The two Sudanese experts present the expected negative effects on neighboring countries, which suffer from economic crises due to the continued influx of refugees and border chaos:
- The length of the war will have an economic, social and security impact on already suffering Ethiopia, Egypt, South Sudan and Chad.
- The closest country to which the Sudanese fleeing the conflict take refuge is Egypt, which is suffering from an economic crisis, in addition to having recently witnessed a large displacement movement from Libya, Yemen and Syria.
- Despite this, Egypt is the most likely neighboring country to receive large numbers of Sudanese, especially because of the stability they find there, unlike South Sudan, Libya and Chad.
- Sudan may turn into an incubator for extremist groups in sub-Saharan Africa, which will threaten neighboring countries as well.
- The conflict may spread to neighboring countries due to tribal interference and ethnic reasons.
- There are neighboring countries that do not have access to the sea, such as Ethiopia, South Sudan, Chad and Central Africa, and they depend on Sudan for exports and imports, and the continuation of the conflict will paralyze their trade.
The Sudanese are the largest foreign community in Egypt, with an estimated number of 4 million people or more. The United Nations said that 56,000 people crossed from Sudan to Egypt in the recent crisis, while more than 12,000 crossed to Ethiopia, and 30,000 to Chad.
As Babiker Youssef put it, these reasons are sufficient to convince everyone that “peace alone is the solution.”
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