2024-01-09 13:59:39
Trump’s recent speech twice touched on the darkness of American history. It is reasonable to speculate that in order to make the United States great once more, he is taking history as a lesson and using two wars to solve the current dilemma of decline. The story has twists and turns but is simple and easy to follow.
AP pictures
After taking over the throne of the White House, Biden has done more vigorously than his predecessor who was the initiator of technology sanctions once morest China. What is amazing is that this veteran of the Democratic Party actually created a fierce contest between China and the United States at the beginning of 2024 that cannot be resolved. Stabilizing the situation is really a master of strategy. After Xi’s visit in San Francisco, the United States did not stop creating tensions in the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, East China Sea and the Korean Peninsula, especially on the most sensitive issue of the Democratic Progressive Party continuing to govern Taiwan. There is no room for compromise, and the highest level of China has openly resisted the voices that have repeatedly reiterated that “China will inevitably unify.” However, Foreign Minister Wang Yi published a long article today reviewing the international situation and China’s diplomacy in 2023, mentioning that Sino-US relations have improved over the past year. , there were many difficulties at the beginning of the year. “After hard work, the two sides restructured communication and dialogue, and the bilateral relations stopped falling and stabilized.”
The boat has passed the Ten Thousand Mountains. Sino-U.S. détente is out of the question. It involves the contradiction between China and the U.S. and the mutual distrust between China and the U.S. that cannot be resolved—unless the U.S. gives up interfering with China’s sovereignty; or China makes concessions in places such as Taiwan and the South China Sea to confirm U.S. “sovereignty” in the Asia-Pacific— Otherwise, the best situation is to “stop the decline and stabilize” and no longer plunge into the worst direction of military conflict. Perhaps, both Beijing and Washington are satisfied. After a year, the two superpowers have stopped from the “critical point” , established an “equilibrium point” between China and the United States. The word “equilibrium” can also be interpreted as a state of “calm” and “stable”. The reality is that the tacit understanding between China and the United States is to ensure the normalization of “conflict-free competition” in the next year.
However, the “equilibrium point” between China and the United States can only be maintained for a limited time. U.S. think tanks have previously proposed that “in 2024, two general elections and two large sea areas will test U.S.-China relations.” This is the leader election of Taiwan and the United States this year, and In the dispute over sovereignty over the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, European public opinion believes that the variables in the US election are the most difficult to predict and accept. It is related to the election of Trump, who is more uncertain than the mechanics of quantity. All current situations will be overturned and the world will What if it becomes a mess once more?
Trump recently mentioned two presidents of the United States. One is Lincoln, the 16th president who launched a civil war that killed millions of people in order to unify the country. The other is Hoover, the 31st president who encountered the Great Depression of the 1930s. First of all, American society is torn apart and civil strife is bound to escalate during the general election. The turmoil on Capitol Hill three years ago may repeat history and lead to the American Civil War. Therefore, Trump’s mention of the Civil War seems to be mixed with some overtones, which makes Republicans uncomfortable. Secondly, when it comes to the Great Depression behind Hoover, what is scary is not the skyrocketing inflation and economic contraction that the United States has experienced, but the war.
Trump said in an interview a few days ago that he has predicted that the U.S. economy will collapse, so he “hopes it will happen within the next year, not following he takes office.” It might be interpreted this way: Hoover was unable to save the decline of the United States. It is a fact. After his successor Roosevelt took over, the United States experienced “good luck.” As you know, during his tenure, the United States entered the Second World War. With this war, the Great Depression in the United States was wiped out and the United States returned to normal. Not only that, but the wartime economy made the United States great once more. The Axis powers perished and the European allies went bankrupt, ushering in the golden years of American hegemony.
Trump is obsessed with it. Does he hope that the United States will be turned around by a civil war and then a world war? I believe he is wild enough to accept such a wild option.
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Natural disasters in Japan have dampened national morale, but the latest article in Nikkei is titled “Japan Diagnosis: Has it become a useless country?” 〉This is the first article, and there will be more analysis in the future. Does such self-criticism seem a bit harsh?
In fact, Japan’s sense of helplessness has been fully revealed in the third place in the fight once morest the epidemic, and others have become rude to Japan. In the middle of last year, Goldman Sachs launched a global GDP ranking forecast for 2075: China is No. 1, and the second place is not the United States but the United States. India, but surprisingly Japan dropped to 12th place. The United States ranks third and Indonesia ranks fourth. Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, has risen from the current 32nd place to 5th place. This is because the country is rich in resources and the government has demonstrated the courage to reform, so it is optimistic.
The biggest problem in Japan is the aging of society and the aging of enterprises. A reporter from Nikkei said: “Once a person passes the age of mid-40s, the number of people who are shocked when they look in the mirror will increase. Sagging skin, protruding abdomen, and loss of luster. Eyes. Although I think it shouldn’t be like this, I can’t regain my youth. No matter how hard I try, I have tried my best to maintain the status quo. Maybe this is what is called getting old. This is true for people, and so is the country.” The writing is a bit literary, I am reminded of Dazai Osamu’s “Disqualification in the World” (meaning losing the qualifications to be a human being). The protagonist of the story, Oba Yozo, grew up under an absolutely authoritative father. From then on, his life was full of depression and decadence. He attempted suicide twice and fell into self-deception. A deceiving “waste”.
Goldman Sachs’s prediction refers to Japan’s loss of its status as an economic and technological power. Miraculously, Japan also has an absolutely authoritative father—the United States. Although it has provided support for upbringing (helping with post-war reconstruction), it has also provided assistance for reconstruction (technology transfer). Help Japan’s miracle), but Japan has never been happy (the United States has repeatedly imposed trade and technology sanctions once morest Japan). As for Ye Zang’s devotion to religion, isn’t Japan immersed in the Western system of democratic and free elections? Where is the way out? Japan has been lost for 30 years. According to the Nikkei, most of Japan’s infrastructure is out of date and in disrepair. For a highly urbanized country, this is an incurable “terminal disease.” Why doesn’t the government invest heavily to reactivate Japan? The problem is financial weakness.
“Nikkei” pointed out that Japan’s debt continues to accumulate like a “fatty liver.” “Looking back, the country’s finances are already heavily in debt. The ratio of Japan’s general government debt balance to GDP has continued to expand since the financial crisis in the late 1990s, and now exceeds 250%, which is the worst level among the G7. ” Aging is more difficult to solve. In 2022, Japan’s elderly people over 65 years old account for as high as 30%, making it the second oldest country in the world, second only to Monaco, and the rate of aging is also significantly faster. In addition, young people in their 20s are not enthusiastic regarding political elections. In the 1980s and 1990s, 60% of them voted, but now only less than 40% remain.
The article concluded: “If Japan wants to make a comeback, it may need major surgery. It may also require painful rehabilitation training. Even so, Japan still has potential.” The key word is “major surgery.” It seems that Japan has a path to take. The key to the path to Japanese-style modernization is the socialist determination to correct the current excessive capitalist + democratic system. Fortunately, Japan is a collectivist country and a member of the Eastern Confucian cultural circle. If so, you are well-founded in saying that Japan still has the potential to turn around. In fact, China has many places for Japan to learn.
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