The strategically important city of Sundza is under complete control

In addition to occupying several dozen border regions and settlements, the Ukrainian invasion has led to the evacuation of tens of thousands of Russian citizens in the Kursk and Belgoron regions.

Ten days after the start of the Ukrainian offensive on the Russian border, the Ukrainian army appears to be consolidating its gains, even announcing that it has created a “military command post in the Russian city of Shuja, which is fully controlled”. The strategically important city of 5,000 has infrastructure for natural gas arriving from Siberia, which flows through Ukrainian pipelines to Europe.

Trophy Russian T-90M “Pirozhok” in the Sudzha area. pic.twitter.com/tDtSblA51B

— MAX 24 (@Max_NAFO_FELLA) August 15, 2024

Since the beginning of the operation in the Kursk region, troops have advanced 35 kilometers deep and captured 1,150 square kilometers of Russian territory with a total of 82 settlements. Meanwhile, despite President Zelensky’s pleas, Washington is reluctant to let Kiev use US long-range weapons inside Russian territory.

According to a statement by the Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Sirksi, in the Kursk region, “the extermination of the enemy in Shuja and three other settlements has been completed.” At the same time, commanders of the occupied villages appear on Russian television, declaring that “everything is working normally and life continues”. In fact, a video was made public with a new blow to a Ukrainian military vehicle.

«So, friends, I will make a brief report.

We have checked almost all of Sudzha. I have no idea where those faggots are hiding. We are now almost in the center. The faggots are lying there, dead. I’ll show you.

By the way, for the Russians who are telling us that Sudzha is… pic.twitter.com/6JQxAL2oAE

— Cloooud | (@GloOouD) August 12, 2024

The Kremlin also accuses the United States of helping Kiev invade Russian territory. The statements of the leadership of the United States that it did not participate in the crimes of Kiev in the Kursk region are untrue. Without the participation and direct support (of the United States), Kiev would not have attacked Russian territory, Kremlin adviser Nikolai Patrushev announced. According to Russian officials, nearly 200,000 people have been rushed out since the Ukrainian operation began on August 8.

Ukrainian state TV showed what it said was the moment when Kyiv soldiers pulled down the Russian flag in the town of Sudzha in Russia’s Kursk region pic.twitter.com/i66abzoRc4

— Reuters (@Reuters) August 14, 2024

The role of the city of Souza

The natural gas that comes from western Siberia via Ukraine passes through Suja to Europe. In total, 3% of the total 15% of Europe’s natural gas imports from Russia passed through Shuja last year. At the same time, however, as the Associated Press notes, Europe continues to walk a razor’s edge in terms of its energy reserves given that it is primarily an energy importer and has recently experienced a burst of inflation due to high energy prices.

Countries such as Austria, Slovakia and Hungary receive the largest quantities of natural gas from Suja, which, in case something “goes wrong”, will have to look for a new energy source. Shuja’s role was most vividly described by Russia’s former deputy foreign minister, Andrei Fedorov, who told a Russian state television program: “Smart people in Kiev have calculated that they need to capture this hub so that the Russian military will be forced to destroy it.” to get him back. This means that gas deliveries to Europe will stop because of Russia’s actions, not Ukraine’s.”

The 6 reasons the invasion of Kursk is crushing Putin

The invasion of Kursk, Russia, turns the tide of the war and marks a critical turning point, with far-reaching implications for the future of Russia’s war against Ukraine. As is becoming more and more clear with each passing day, the Ukrainian offensive that began on August 6 is not a minor incident. Ukraine’s attack represents a new development in at least six ways.

Firstly: The invasion of Kursk, Ukraine is a large-scale military offensive conducted by the official Ukrainian military, unlike previous infantry incursions into Russian territory, which were conducted by smaller, semi-regular, asymmetric units such as the Legion of Free Russia, the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Siberian Order, which consisted of Russian citizens fighting for Ukraine. This distinction is important both practically and symbolically. Unlike the limited incursions by pro-Ukrainian Russian combat units, this offensive is a major Ukrainian military operation, involving a large number of personnel and a wide variety of weapons.

Secondly: The first days of the Ukrainian invasion of Russia were unexpectedly successful for Kiev. Ukrainian forces are reported to have captured about 1,180 square kilometers of significant Russian territory, while suffering moderate losses in soldiers and equipment. The Ukrainian military officially controls 74 settlements, including the administrative center of Shuja. Although a small town of about 5,000 citizens, Shuja is an important logistics hub for the Russian military. Natural gas has continued to flow through Suja throughout the war since 2014, from Ukraine to Slovakia and further into Central Europe. Both Moscow and Kiev have maintained, and will likely continue to maintain, a commercial interest in maintaining the remaining Russia-EU gas trade.

Thirdly: The Kursk invasion led to the biggest and fastest shift in the front line of the war since Ukraine’s liberation of Russian-held territory in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions in the fall of 2022. For the first time in a long time, the map of front between Russia and Ukraine looks noticeably different.

Fourth: The invasion of Kursk can be considered a “delayed implementation” of the much-discussed Ukrainian counteroffensive that stopped in the summer of 2023. A year ago, a Ukrainian retaliatory attack on occupied Ukrainian territory was unsuccessful. Now, a more successful attempt is being made on Russian soil. With the relatively deep incursion of Ukrainian troops into Western Russia, the war has somewhat shifted from a war of attrition to a war of maneuver.

Fifth: Perhaps the most important element. With the invasion of Kursk, the land war between Russia and Ukraine changed from a confrontation almost exclusively on Ukrainian soil to one that is now taking place on the legitimate state territories of both countries. This shift has already become a source of embarrassment and distraction for the Kremlin. If the Ukrainian advance into Russia turns out to be more than a brief episode, Kiev’s shift to a war of aggression on Russian soil will have significant strategic and possibly paradigmatic implications.

Rect: The initial success of the invasion of Russian territory raises questions about the significance of controversial statements of Russian military doctrine and frequent verbal threats about the use of nuclear weapons by 2022. The August invasion is arguably the most serious possible violation of its sovereignty of Russia. However, during the first week of Kiev’s rapid offensive, Moscow issued no warnings of nuclear escalation. Instead, the Kremlin announced a so-called “anti-terrorist operation” under the command of the Federal Security Service (FSB), downgrading the Ukrainian military’s deep incursion into the Kursk region to a routine national security threat.

Moscow’s planning is complicated

For Moscow, the new Ukrainian strategy, even with its currently limited achievements, complicates the planning, conduct and presentation of Russia’s expansionary war against Ukraine. In light of recent developments, Russia will need to maintain and deploy more troops within its territory rather than Ukraine. Reversing, preventing, and deterring the Kursk attack and possible future Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil has become a new strategic priority for Russia’s general staff. Previously, the Russian military was focused on fighting on foreign soil (in Moldova, Georgia, Syria, Ukraine or other countries.) This exclusively aggressive, invasive and provocative period of Russian military development is now ending.

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