– When the main index rises 2 percent from the start today, it shows that it went too far yesterday. That the pessimism became too dark among investors, says chief economist Kjersti Haugland at DNB Markets to NTB.
She already expressed on Monday that the global market unrest was triggered by an overly pessimistic view of the economic situation in the United States. Admittedly, the stage is set for a cooling across the pond, but the fear that the world’s largest economy is in a deeper and more prolonged downturn is exaggerated, she believes.
– A couple or three key figures admittedly came in somewhat weaker than expected before the weekend, but a number of other arrows point in the opposite direction, Haugland points out.
On Tuesday, it may appear that she was right in her analysis: After ending up down 3.4 percent on Monday, the main index on Oslo Børs rose by over 2 percent immediately after trading opened at 9 a.m. on Tuesday. Just over an hour later, growth had slowed to around 1 per cent. The rise is spread widely among the companies on the stock exchange.
Positive arrows
On Monday afternoon, figures were released that measure activity and expectations in the service sector. They were increasing and better than expected. It probably helped to calm a nervous financial market.
– When investors digest the sum of information coming from the American economy, they realize that the sell-off was too great. Thus, the desire to buy is back, says Haugland.
She points out, however, that the values at the stock exchanges and interest rates are still markedly lower than when the fall started. The krone exchange rate also remains at a low level.
– It is very difficult to say now whether the worst is over, but I think much of the pessimism has been removed. The stage is probably ripe for a more positive surprise in the form of key figures that show that things are not really that bad in the world’s largest economy, even if the rate of growth is slowing, says Haugland.
The Nikkei bounced back
The leading European stock exchanges also opened on Tuesday morning with cautious arrows upwards after Monday’s sharp fall. In Tokyo, the Nikkei index ended Tuesday with a rise of more than 10.2 percent after it ended down 12.4 percent on Monday.
Investment director Robert Næss at Nordea Markets believes it is not surprising if the market experiences a setback after the stock market crash and says Finansavisen that he understands little of “all the talk about recession”.
– The companies are earning more than ever. In terms of earnings, we are in a bull market, so I don’t understand anything about pricing in a recession. 2023 was the best year for global earnings ever, and 2024 is set to be 9 percent better, he says.
What happens next depends entirely on what is reported from the US going forward, according to the economists.
Wide rise in Oslo
On Oslo Børs, all the heavyweights except Telenor were in the green on Tuesday morning:
* Equinor: +0.7 percent
* DNB: +0.8 per cent
* Kongsberg Group: +3 percent
* Telenor: -0.2 per cent
* Aker BP: +0.4 percent
North Sea oil went for around USD 76 a barrel – 1.3 per cent lower than at the previous closing price.
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2024-08-08 20:17:30
