Mykhailo Romaschenko, the former director of the Institute of Water Problems and Reclamation of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine, told UNIAN what threats damage to the Dnipro HPP may pose.
Mr. Mykhailo, what are the threats posed by the damage to the Dnipro HPP? After all, we have already seen what happens with a dam breach, as it was during the Russians’ detonation of the Kakhovskaya HPP.
From the information I have seen, there is no threat of a dam breach. I don’t know what the real damage is, but the hits that are mentioned in the open sources carry a threat,
From what I’ve read, primarily in terms of power supply. After all, DniproHES is the most powerful hydroelectric plant on the Dnipro.
What happens next? It is necessary to follow the events. But as far as I know, the Dnipro HPP dam is very strong in its condition. To blow it up, to break it, you need not so many charges and hits.
When such dams are built, they are designed for seismic resistance. Let me remind you that in order to blow up Kakhovska, it was necessary to plant explosives inside the dam itself, which is what the Russians did with it. That is, it is not regarding being hit by missiles. Of course, rockets also carry explosives. But in order to break the hydroelectric dam, a very massive strike is needed, a very large number of missiles at the same time.
And, probably, they should somehow hit, conditionally, at the same point?
I am not an expert in terms of military capabilities and the means of destruction available today, as well as their ability to destroy such objects. But the fact that they specifically aimed at the engine rooms of the hydroelectric power station is precisely the calculation to deprive DniproHESP of the opportunity to produce electricity.
I repeat, to what extent they succeeded, what exactly was damaged, I do not have information.
Do you think the Russians will continue their attempts to attack the Dnipro HPP and other HPPs?
I think that following Peskov’s statements that Ukraine will be destroyed, massive strikes on energy infrastructure facilities will now be the main goal. Will they allow themselves to destroy Dnipro HPP? You can expect everything from them. I would not rule out such a scenario.
Is it possible to somehow secure hydroelectric power plants? Not only because we have air defense, for example, but somehow to strengthen them physically, to close some individual elements?
In order to damage an object that is more reinforced, you just need more explosives. During the Second World War, this hydroelectric power station and this dam were also blown up…
Today there was information that as a result of a hit on the Dnipro HPP, oil products leaked into the Dnipro. Can we now say where these oil products can go?
Of course, in the lower reaches of the Dnieper. What gets there will be carried down the channel. And they will spread with the river. The amount will depend on how much damage will be caused by this stain.
Which of our cities may be at risk?
Everything we have below Zaporozhye. Kamianka-Dniprovska, Nikopol, Kherson… These are the largest, located practically on the bank of the Dnieper.
Photo by UNIAN
If, theoretically, we assume that the Russians will succeed in their plan and the dam will become irreparable. What can happen to the surrounding areas? Can the flooding be of the same scale as with the Kakhovskaya HPP?
There will be flooding once more, as it was when the Kakhov reservoir burst. But the volume of this reservoir is smaller.
Will this somehow affect the cascade of hydroelectric power plants on the Dnipro River?
Yes, because everything affects. You see, in connection with the absence of the Kakhovsky Reservoir, almost the entire south of us – Kherson and Zaporizhia regions – by and large, remained without a source of water. Also, through the Dnipro-Ingulets canal system, water also went to the Mykolaiv Region…
That is, the undermining of the Kakhovskaya HPP and the destruction of the Kakhovskaya Reservoir means the absence of a water source. Without its restoration, even following the liberation of these territories, it is impossible to talk regarding their effective sustainable use, including agricultural. After all, the climate changes that are occurring, if they persist, will turn these territories, which remained without irrigation, into a semi-desert, a desert. That is, the south without water is practically a transformation into regions of Ukraine that are not suitable for living and life activities of the population.
As for the Dnipro Reservoir, its volume is small. As far as I know, it is not a big source, so to speak, of water supply and water supply. Its main purpose is the production of electricity. But the general balance of regulation in the cascade of the Dnieper reservoirs is disturbed, so to speak…
That is, it can affect the “upper” reservoirs that go to it?
The level of water sufficient to turn the turbines of DniproHES will simply disappear.
… I generally want to say that the possibility, scope and plans for the implementation of post-war reconstruction will directly depend on the availability and amount of available water resources. Because of this, we will definitely have to restore the Kakhov reservoir. Moreover, I believe that the question of attracting water resources from the Danube River is timely. Today there are already such technical and technological possibilities: technologies for the production of pipes with a large diameter, up to four meters, have appeared, which make it possible to transport this water without harming the environment, without flooding, over long distances. In this way, then it will be possible to solve the problem of fully providing Odesa, Mykolaiv region and those regions that I mentioned.
Recently, there was information that water began to appear once more on the territory of the Kakhovsky Reservoir – restoration of the Great Meadow is underway…
This is the usual spring watering. What is strange here? Spring watering – the water level has risen. That is, this is the usual mode of operation of any river. Spring irrigation fills the delta, but you will have to watch in the summer. The water level will drop…
Kakhovskaya HPP June 10, 2023 / photo by Ukrhydroenergo
The reservoir supported and, in a certain way, flooded the surrounding lands. That is, it watered them. The Kakhov reservoir served as a source of power for underground aquifers. And now – complex damage.
We often assess the damage by what areas are flooded, but we overlook the main purpose of these reservoirs – a source of water. And just so you understand, the cascade of Dnipro reservoirs provides 70% of Ukraine’s water needs. Including Donbas (through the Dnipro-Donbas canal, which fed).
That is, water problems are our future?
This is a very complex issue. Even in Polissia, we will now have a gradually increasing deficit in natural resources. And we will have to think regarding how to use the spring waters that are there more effectively. It is not easy to dump and drain them, but to accumulate part of them… At the same time, the accumulation of water there reduces the flow into the cascade of the Dnieper reservoirs, creates certain threats to their capacity and water exchange.
From my point of view, this problem is not given enough attention today. But low supply of own water resources is a very big problem of Ukraine. We are one of the least supplied (water) countries in Europe, and somewhere, approximately, on the 120th place in terms of the level of supply in the world.
Tanya Polyakovska
Tanya Polyakovska
