Is space threatened by the “tragedy of the commons,” the theory that overexploitation of a common resource leads to its destruction? Is there an urgent need for rules to protect the most used orbital paths, now threatened by the proliferation of satellites and space debris? Some 80 stakeholders in the field – who met in Paris from January 18 to 20, for a workshop on the sustainability of space, organized by the National Center for Space Studies (CNES) – think so. The attending agencies, satellite manufacturers, operators, and service providers from Europe and the United States unanimously answered yes to these questions.
The surge of private players in the new space sector, the mega-constellations of satellites providing high-speed internet and the drop in the cost of access to space have changed the game. “In 2016,” according to Juan Carlos Dolado, space debris specialist and co-founder of the company Look Up Space in 2022, “there were 1,000 satellites in orbit. Between 2017 and 2019, another 1,000 were launched. In 2020 alone, we launched 1,000 more. And in 2022, we sent 2,100…”
“We’re watching the beginning of an exponential increase,” confirmed Vincent Ruch, an engineer specializing in space surveillance at CNES. Currently, between 26,000 and 36,000 objects larger than 10 centimeters are circling above our heads. Among them are active or decommissioned satellites, rocket elements, large debris, and more. The more cluttered space becomes, the greater the risk of an accident, including the threat of Kessler syndrome, the phenomenon of chain collisions popularized by the film Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron, 2013). “Between three and 10 fragmentations are recorded every year,” said Ruch. “Some of them concern rather passive objects, without much energy, and create little debris. But when the upper stage of a rocket explodes, it can create hundreds of new pieces of debris.”
‘Cemetery’ orbit paths
The question of debris is closely linked to that of satellites that are near the end of their life or already dead because space “wrecks” can no longer be maneuvered in case of risk of collision; they are also the most likely to see their tanks or batteries explode spontaneously. It is easy to understand the importance of “passivating” them – in other words, emptying them of all their energy – and “de-orbiting” them, which, according to current regulations, must be done within 25 years of the end of their activity.
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A few years ago, it was estimated that if 90% of out-of-service satellites were scrapped, the number of debris would not increase. “But,” Ruch cautioned, “this was an optimistic scenario that did not take into account accidental fragmentations or the existence of large constellations.” The reality resembles the forecasts even less as the real figure is rather around 30%. The consequence is that even if humans stopped sending spacecraft into orbit, the number of debris would continue to grow.
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