2024-11-26 15:53:00
The Social Security budget for 2025 was approved in the Senate, by a clear majority (202 votes to 109), Tuesday November 26. Unsurprisingly, the supporters of the government camp, largely in the majority in the hemicycle, approved the text with the votes of the right and the centrists.
On the other hand, the small Macronist group, which includes around twenty senators, mostly abstained, thus sending a warning signal to the government, on the eve of a crucial meeting, Wednesday at 2 p.m., between deputies and senators, responsible for reaching a compromise version during a joint committee (CMP).
“Our group cannot be satisfied with the labor saving measures adopted by the government”launched the senator from the Rally of Democrats, Progressives and Independents group.
A major divergence persists on a flagship measure, the reduction in reductions in employer contributions. The government proposed an effort of 4 billion euros on businesses, the Senate reduced it to 3 billion… but the Renaissance parliamentarians continue to demand the total removal of the measure.
Negotiations could therefore stretch to the CMP, where coalition troops will be in the majority. The threat would come from the Ensemble pour la République (EPR) deputies: could they block any agreement?
“If the CMP fails because of EPR, it is a political risk”
If the CMP failed, it would not be “not the end of the world. But, if it fails because of EPR, it is a political risk”budget minister Laurent Saint-Martin said during the meeting, according to his entourage. “More broadly, it is the existence of the “common base” that is at stake”he added.
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“If we all arrive with our impenetrable red lines, there will never be an agreement. At that time, we should not get into the same boat”alerted Marc Fesneau, president of the MoDem deputies. Michel Barnier “said he was willing to go the extra mile, but didn’t quantify it”reported another executive from the government camp on condition of anonymity.
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For Laurent Saint-Martin, a « bon consensus » could be released in CMP by the reduction “a little more than half” of the effort required of businesses, i.e. 1.5 billion compared to 4 initially.
A reduction of 1 billion euros in the deficit, according to the government
In the ranks of the coalition, many have warned of the importance of an agreement in CMP, while the threat of censorship is ever more pressing, with the National Rally ready to vote for it if it is not heard. If the use of 49.3 seems inevitable, activating it on a consensus text may seem less cavalier than a forced passage without prior agreement between the two chambers.
The Senate’s copy, in any case, remains fairly faithful to the initial project, assuming billions in savings while social finances are at half mast. According to the government, the examination of the text in the Senate made it possible to reduce the projected Social Security deficit by an additional 1 billion, estimated at 15 billion, compared to 16 billion according to the initial objective and 18.5 billion in 2024.
Retirees, insured persons, businesses, patients, health professionals… Everyone is involved in the text full of measures considered sensitive even in the new coalition, and denounced by the left. “The government has given in to internal political battles over its shaky common base”was indignant, socialist senator Annie Le Houérou.
It provides for an increase in pensions by half of inflation on January 1, then a second half on July 1 for only pensions below the minimum wage. Various taxes on soda, tobacco and gambling were also passed by the Senate, as well as a seven-hour contribution from “solidarity” per year worked without pay by all employees to finance dependency, a measure widely criticized on the left, but which could disappear from the final copy.
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