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In a new update of his Quarterly Climate Forecast (PCT)the National Meteorological Service SMN) indicated that for the quarter March-April-May 2022 is anticipated “a higher chance of normal or above-normal temperatures across most of the country.” That can be translated as an autumn that could be “warmer than usual”after a 2021-2022 summer with temperature records in several areas of the country, which ended up placing it as the third hottest in history.
When preparing the average temperature and precipitation trend expected for the next quarter, the SMN indicates that the behavior of rainfall and temperature can have three possible categories: below normal, normal and above normal. Without factors that modify the typical atmospheric circulation of the quarter, for a simple matter of logic, each category then has the same probability of occurrence: 33.3%. But when atmospheric forcing acts, such as The Boy or The Girlthe planetary circulation changes and then the occurrence of any of these categories becomes more -or less- likely
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Thus, referring to the March-April-May 2022 quarter, specialists find a greater probability that temperatures will be normal or higher than normal in almost the entire country, except for the provinces of NOA (Northwest Argentina), Cuyo and the south of Patagonia, which would have temperatures “within the average” for the autumn season.
As for the rains, the SMN forecast for the autumn months indicates a high probability of a drier-than-usual quarter about the region of Coast and the east of Buenos Aires.
In addition, rainfall is more likely to be average or below normal in Córdobathe west of Santa Fe, west of Buenos Aires, east of La Pampa and north-central Patagonia.
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On the other hand, on the provinces of the NOA and in the extreme south of Patagonia, rains can be recorded above the average for the seasonwhile towards the north of the country they are expected to be within the normal range.
It should be noted that the rainfall forecast for this quarter is not favorable for the northeast of our country, considering the critical situation of recent months. In addition, the phenomenon of The girl much of the fall, which affects the climate of the region.
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